Betting Lines
| Spread | NICH -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 157.5 Under |
| Money | CARK +170 NICH -163 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CARK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NICH +2 | 146 | Lost |
| Massey | NICH -3.9 (+1.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.2 (-9.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 22% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 7% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NICH -2.9 (+0.9) | 152.8 (-6.8) | 36% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NICH -2.5 (+0.5) | 151.4 (-5.4) | 30% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NICH -3.1 (+1.1) | 155.3 (-9.3) | 35% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NICH -2.3 (+0.3) | 153.1 (-7.1) | 41% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 20, 2021 | NICH 79 – 68 CARK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CARK | NICH |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 5-19 | 18-7 |
| Conference | 4-12 | 14-2 |
| Home | 4-5 | 8-1 |
| Away | 1-14 | 7-5 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.0 | 77.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 82.8 | 73.8 |
| Massey | -7.6 (#286) | -0.9 (#179) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.06 (#310) | -0.26 (#190) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.75 (#326) | -0.57 (#203) |
| RPI | 0.449 (#236) | 0.487 (#185) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CARK | NICH |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.7% | 43.1% |
| 3PT% | 36.4% | 30.4% |
| REB / G | 37.0 | 37.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.67 | 0.92 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.5% | 48.8% |
| TOV% | 25.4% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 27.6% | 29.2% |
| FT Rate | 26.2% | 16.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.1% | 49.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.1% | 20.9% |
| DRB% | 70.7% | 70.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.6% | 26.7% |
Game Analysis
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