Betting Lines
| Spread | NEV -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Under |
| Money | NEV -225 FRES +230 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NEV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NEV +16 | 130 | Won |
| Massey | NEV -10.3 (+5.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.3 (-5.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NEV -8.3 (+7.7) | 137.4 (-7.4) | 81% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NEV -5.8 (+10.2) | 135.0 (-5.0) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NEV -8.4 (+7.6) | 137.7 (-7.7) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NEV -8.8 (+7.2) | 137.9 (-7.9) | 78% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 8, 2026 | NEV 69 – 59 FRES |
| Jan 4, 2026 | NEV 66 – 65 FRES |
| Mar 12, 2025 | NEV 86 – 71 FRES |
| Feb 11, 2025 | NEV 94 – 69 FRES |
| Jan 12, 2025 | NEV 77 – 66 FRES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NEV | FRES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-10 | 12-12 |
| Conference | 10-7 | 9-11 |
| Home | 10-2 | 7-5 |
| Away | 4-7 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.2 | 64.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.9 | 68.5 |
| Massey | 3.0 (#121) | -4.5 (#237) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.72 (#118) | -0.43 (#201) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.81 (#125) | -0.29 (#185) |
| RPI | 0.549 (#100) | 0.450 (#233) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NEV | FRES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.8% | 44.4% |
| 3PT% | 34.6% | 28.9% |
| REB / G | 36.8 | 39.5 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 14.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.95 | 0.72 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.5% | 50.1% |
| TOV% | 19.7% | 21.3% |
| ORB% | 25.9% | 36.6% |
| FT Rate | 29.1% | 19.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.9% | 52.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.8% | 19.6% |
| DRB% | 75.7% | 80.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.7% | 28.5% |
Game Analysis
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