Why don't you get back into bed. "Reasons to be Cheerful, Part 3" - Ian Dury & the Blockheads
← All models

Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

← Prev day Next day →
82–34 on winners spread MAE 10.2 118 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Duquesne @ St. Bonaventure +10.7 132.1 84% 48–62 ✓
Long Island University @ Wagner -1.9 142.3 47% 74–76 ✗
Siena @ Rider -6.4 139.1 25% 78–69 ✓
Purdue Fort Wayne @ Milwaukee +8.0 150.9 74% 81–72 ✗
Youngstown State @ Oakland +0.9 157.2 58% 65–82 ✓
Green Bay @ Detroit Mercy +0.4 149.1 60% 61–86 ✓
Cleveland State @ Wright State +9.9 135.3 84% 66–64 ✗
Presbyterian @ Campbell +4.8 129.2 64% 51–73 ✓
Liberty @ Stetson -12.3 142.1 17% 59–65 ✗
Bellarmine @ Florida Gulf Coast +3.9 136.8 60% 74–60 ✗
UL Monroe @ Arkansas State -1.1 136.5 50% 72–74 ✗
App State @ South Alabama +2.7 143.6 63% 64–73 ✓
Louisiana @ UT Arlington +3.7 148.2 66% 86–91 ✓
Utah Tech @ UT Rio Grande Valley +6.6 145.0 78% 49–82 ✓
Bowling Green @ Buffalo +3.9 158.9 63% 76–69 ✗
UC Riverside @ Cal Poly -13.4 131.8 15% 86–51 ✓
Texas State @ Little Rock +5.4 140.3 68% 63–59 ✗
UTSA @ Louisiana Tech +12.0 147.6 85% 66–77 ✓
North Florida @ Lipscomb +5.7 140.0 69% 72–84 ✓
Robert Morris @ UIC +1.2 150.5 60% 53–67 ✓
Middle Tennessee @ Southern Miss +3.4 124.6 63% 54–84 ✓
UTEP @ North Texas +3.9 138.4 65% 33–63 ✓
UC San Diego @ UC Santa Barbara +13.2 141.6 85% 52–69 ✓
North Dakota State @ North Dakota -3.9 132.2 31% 62–45 ✓
Wisconsin @ Rutgers -0.2 139.6 50% 60–54 ✓
Utah Valley @ Seattle U -0.3 137.4 40% 93–92 ✓
Tarleton State @ California Baptist +2.3 144.7 60% 74–83 ✓
Fresno State @ Nevada +8.8 137.9 78% 57–73 ✓
Cal State Bakersfield @ Hawai'i +7.6 144.3 65% 60–55 ✗
Ohio State @ Illinois +8.3 147.9 76% 87–81 ✗
Marquette @ St. John's +0.9 151.7 50% 73–71 ✗
Syracuse @ Pittsburgh +1.4 141.2 60% 76–96 ✓
North Carolina @ Florida State +5.1 145.0 72% 75–82 ✓
American University @ Navy — — — 86–87 —
Georgia @ Ole Miss +5.9 144.4 73% 78–74 ✗
Missouri @ Texas A&M -4.8 129.6 32% 68–52 ✓
Temple @ Tulane +1.0 133.1 53% 65–57 ✗
Holy Cross @ Colgate +22.4 152.6 90% 55–95 ✓
Army @ Boston University -1.2 142.2 47% 79–59 ✓
Hartford @ UMBC +5.2 134.4 70% 70–63 ✗
The Citadel @ VMI +1.6 165.5 65% 103–110 ✓
Northern Illinois @ Ball State +14.2 137.5 88% 58–78 ✓
Northeastern @ Charleston -1.6 131.8 45% 67–62 ✓
William & Mary @ Drexel +6.2 133.8 76% 58–82 ✓
Northern Arizona @ Montana +10.0 131.0 77% 62–58 ✗
San Diego State @ Utah State +4.7 127.5 68% 59–64 ✓
Michigan @ Minnesota -1.0 147.4 44% 57–75 ✗
Creighton @ Butler -11.9 139.6 18% 66–70 ✗
Davidson @ La Salle -4.2 136.1 30% 77–53 ✓
James Madison @ Towson -2.9 148.1 43% 81–72 ✓
Coppin State @ Morgan State +16.5 151.0 89% 72–92 ✓
George Mason @ Rhode Island +9.5 141.0 80% 60–80 ✓
Lehigh @ Bucknell +1.3 141.1 53% 70–75 ✓
Oral Roberts @ Denver -13.0 155.3 14% 91–82 ✓
Kentucky @ Auburn +3.3 144.2 65% 59–66 ✓
Coastal Carolina @ Georgia State +6.6 151.1 70% 68–71 ✓
New Hampshire @ Stony Brook +3.0 136.6 63% 81–64 ✗
UMass Lowell @ Binghamton -3.9 136.5 34% 92–78 ✓
Old Dominion @ Rice +3.3 142.3 64% 61–58 ✗
Wofford @ Chattanooga +1.6 146.6 63% 77–59 ✗
Western Carolina @ Mercer +6.1 159.2 78% 76–78 ✓
Kent State @ Ohio +1.4 156.5 59% 89–79 ✗
Toledo @ Akron -6.0 147.3 29% 94–95 ✗
Portland State @ Montana State +8.2 140.1 79% 64–69 ✓
UNC Greensboro @ Samford -0.4 144.5 45% 82–70 ✓
Stanford @ Colorado +10.6 139.6 84% 64–77 ✓
Youngstown State @ Oakland +0.9 156.2 59% 74–81 ✓
Troy @ Georgia Southern +3.9 132.2 67% 56–63 ✓
Maine @ Vermont +11.3 130.2 84% 30–65 ✓
Northern Colorado @ Idaho -8.4 137.3 24% 75–61 ✓
Southern Utah @ Eastern Washington +6.7 150.9 73% 99–94 ✗
Arkansas @ Alabama +3.4 157.8 66% 59–90 ✓
Baylor @ Texas Tech -0.7 145.1 41% 68–60 ✓
Valparaiso @ DePaul +6.8 145.8 71% 58–77 ✓
Indiana State @ Illinois State -5.1 140.3 30% 73–65 ✓
Evansville @ Bradley +9.7 129.8 80% 60–69 ✓
Wyoming @ Air Force +0.1 142.8 51% 69–72 ✓
Niagara @ Manhattan -2.4 128.2 38% 55–58 ✗
SE Louisiana @ Abilene Christian +15.8 132.1 88% 42–76 ✓
Boston College @ Notre Dame +2.1 150.2 59% 70–80 ✓
Loyola Maryland @ Lafayette — — — 75–77 —
Florida @ Mississippi State -0.3 145.3 59% 69–72 ✗
North Alabama @ Kennesaw State -1.7 128.6 37% 66–64 ✓
UAB @ Charlotte -6.4 123.6 24% 55–70 ✗
UTEP @ North Texas +4.4 135.4 70% 65–74 ✓
Florida International @ Florida Atlantic +0.7 144.7 56% 63–107 ✓
Alabama State @ Alabama A&M +15.8 144.3 90% 63–70 ✓
East Tennessee State @ Furman +12.3 145.1 87% 66–78 ✓
Houston Christian @ Sam Houston +13.6 152.7 88% 80–87 ✓
Eastern Michigan @ Central Michigan +4.8 151.0 72% 64–75 ✓
Morehead State @ Southeast Missouri State -0.4 135.0 47% 64–50 ✓
Norfolk State @ Delaware State -12.0 150.0 13% 87–76 ✓
Washington @ UCLA +17.8 149.8 90% 76–81 ✓
Quinnipiac @ Monmouth +10.2 147.3 83% 63–70 ✓
Fairfield @ Marist +8.7 133.2 76% 55–52 ✗
Murray State @ UT Martin -5.9 142.6 23% 79–57 ✓
Eastern Kentucky @ Eastern Illinois -3.5 153.4 36% 93–85 ✓
Belmont @ Jacksonville State -1.7 138.8 37% 98–91 ✓
Liberty @ Stetson -10.2 138.9 17% 68–58 ✓
Nicholls @ Central Arkansas -2.3 153.1 41% 74–72 ✓
UL Monroe @ Arkansas State -0.5 138.5 43% 72–93 ✗
Texas State @ Little Rock +5.4 139.5 71% 67–56 ✗
App State @ South Alabama +2.7 142.8 65% 83–77 ✗
Louisiana @ UT Arlington +4.2 148.9 65% 68–51 ✗
NJIT @ UAlbany +1.5 133.2 64% 75–83 ✓
Middle Tennessee @ Southern Miss +3.6 127.3 57% 59–64 ✓
New Mexico @ UNLV +8.0 140.2 83% 54–77 ✓
Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ Southern +8.8 143.9 84% 53–88 ✓
Vanderbilt @ Tennessee +20.7 138.8 91% 61–81 ✓
Virginia @ Clemson +2.6 127.5 61% 85–50 ✗
North Florida @ Lipscomb +6.1 139.9 71% 72–67 ✗
Northern Iowa @ Loyola Chicago +12.0 142.1 87% 57–72 ✓
Colorado State @ San José State -17.4 148.9 13% 88–61 ✓
IU Indianapolis @ Northern Kentucky +3.3 134.5 64% 65–63 ✗
Robert Morris @ UIC +1.3 149.1 58% 62–66 ✓
Green Bay @ Detroit Mercy +1.4 151.9 58% 65–68 ✓
Loyola Marymount @ Pacific +3.0 134.0 66% 49–58 ✓
Mississippi Valley State @ Alcorn State +16.4 156.0 89% 59–71 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.