Everybody know I'm a motherfucking monster. "Monster" - Kanye West
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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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79–37 on winners spread MAE 10.3 116 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Duquesne @ St. Bonaventure +11.5 126.6 85% 48–62 ✓
Long Island University @ Wagner -2.4 137.2 41% 74–76 ✗
Siena @ Rider -9.2 140.1 20% 78–69 ✓
Purdue Fort Wayne @ Milwaukee +9.8 154.2 81% 81–72 ✗
Youngstown State @ Oakland +0.0 160.9 50% 65–82 ✓
Green Bay @ Detroit Mercy +3.3 154.0 62% 61–86 ✓
Cleveland State @ Wright State +10.8 130.1 84% 66–64 ✗
Presbyterian @ Campbell +6.1 130.2 71% 51–73 ✓
Liberty @ Stetson -13.1 141.9 12% 59–65 ✗
Bellarmine @ Florida Gulf Coast +5.8 132.4 70% 74–60 ✗
UL Monroe @ Arkansas State -0.1 134.0 50% 72–74 ✗
App State @ South Alabama +4.7 145.4 67% 64–73 ✓
Louisiana @ UT Arlington +5.8 147.2 70% 86–91 ✓
Utah Tech @ UT Rio Grande Valley +8.6 146.4 78% 49–82 ✓
Bowling Green @ Buffalo +5.0 166.0 67% 76–69 ✗
UC Riverside @ Cal Poly -17.5 124.2 6% 86–51 ✓
Texas State @ Little Rock +6.7 139.5 73% 63–59 ✗
UTSA @ Louisiana Tech +12.7 150.8 88% 66–77 ✓
North Florida @ Lipscomb +7.4 141.4 75% 72–84 ✓
Robert Morris @ UIC -0.4 147.0 48% 53–67 ✗
Middle Tennessee @ Southern Miss +3.0 114.8 61% 54–84 ✓
UTEP @ North Texas +2.0 135.5 57% 33–63 ✓
UC San Diego @ UC Santa Barbara +11.6 144.9 85% 52–69 ✓
North Dakota State @ North Dakota -5.0 124.5 32% 62–45 ✓
Wisconsin @ Rutgers -2.8 137.9 40% 60–54 ✓
Utah Valley @ Seattle U -1.6 131.7 44% 93–92 ✓
Tarleton State @ California Baptist +3.1 147.9 61% 74–83 ✓
Fresno State @ Nevada +9.0 136.0 79% 57–73 ✓
Cal State Bakersfield @ Hawai'i +9.3 145.8 80% 60–55 ✗
Ohio State @ Illinois +8.0 148.9 77% 87–81 ✗
Marquette @ St. John's -1.2 155.6 46% 73–71 ✓
Syracuse @ Pittsburgh -1.1 141.6 46% 76–96 ✗
North Carolina @ Florida State +4.9 144.7 67% 75–82 ✓
Georgia @ Ole Miss +8.2 142.8 77% 78–74 ✗
Missouri @ Texas A&M -7.1 127.1 26% 68–52 ✓
Temple @ Tulane -0.2 127.1 49% 65–57 ✓
Holy Cross @ Colgate +23.7 153.0 98% 55–95 ✓
Army @ Boston University -5.0 139.2 32% 79–59 ✓
Hartford @ UMBC +6.8 134.9 73% 70–63 ✗
The Citadel @ VMI +2.3 173.1 58% 103–110 ✓
Northern Illinois @ Ball State +17.3 134.8 94% 58–78 ✓
Northeastern @ Charleston -2.5 127.7 41% 67–62 ✓
William & Mary @ Drexel +9.2 131.4 80% 58–82 ✓
Northern Arizona @ Montana +13.8 126.6 89% 62–58 ✗
San Diego State @ Utah State +3.9 125.4 64% 59–64 ✓
Michigan @ Minnesota -5.7 153.6 30% 57–75 ✗
Creighton @ Butler -13.7 140.2 11% 66–70 ✗
Davidson @ La Salle -5.2 131.3 32% 77–53 ✓
James Madison @ Towson -3.5 151.1 38% 81–72 ✓
Coppin State @ Morgan State +19.7 151.6 96% 72–92 ✓
George Mason @ Rhode Island +11.0 137.0 84% 60–80 ✓
Lehigh @ Bucknell +1.4 137.7 55% 70–75 ✓
Oral Roberts @ Denver -14.5 158.7 9% 91–82 ✓
Kentucky @ Auburn +3.3 142.6 62% 59–66 ✓
Coastal Carolina @ Georgia State +5.7 157.4 70% 68–71 ✓
New Hampshire @ Stony Brook +4.4 137.7 66% 81–64 ✗
UMass Lowell @ Binghamton -5.1 134.7 32% 92–78 ✓
Old Dominion @ Rice +3.8 142.1 64% 61–58 ✗
Wofford @ Chattanooga +1.8 142.8 57% 77–59 ✗
Western Carolina @ Mercer +9.2 170.5 80% 76–78 ✓
Kent State @ Ohio -0.1 159.4 50% 89–79 ✓
Toledo @ Akron -7.0 145.5 26% 94–95 ✗
Portland State @ Montana State +9.9 143.4 82% 64–69 ✓
UNC Greensboro @ Samford -1.3 147.2 45% 82–70 ✓
Stanford @ Colorado +12.2 138.3 87% 64–77 ✓
Youngstown State @ Oakland +0.0 160.9 50% 74–81 ✓
Troy @ Georgia Southern +4.0 128.5 64% 56–63 ✓
Maine @ Vermont +12.3 122.1 87% 30–65 ✓
Northern Colorado @ Idaho -7.8 136.9 24% 75–61 ✓
Southern Utah @ Eastern Washington +9.4 152.7 80% 99–94 ✗
Arkansas @ Alabama +1.7 163.4 56% 59–90 ✓
Baylor @ Texas Tech -4.1 142.6 36% 68–60 ✓
Valparaiso @ DePaul +7.4 143.9 75% 58–77 ✓
Indiana State @ Illinois State -6.7 142.4 27% 73–65 ✓
Evansville @ Bradley +11.1 121.6 84% 60–69 ✓
Wyoming @ Air Force -0.3 142.6 49% 69–72 ✗
Niagara @ Manhattan -4.0 123.3 36% 55–58 ✗
SE Louisiana @ Abilene Christian +19.9 128.7 97% 42–76 ✓
Boston College @ Notre Dame +2.2 156.8 58% 70–80 ✓
Florida @ Mississippi State -2.2 146.1 42% 69–72 ✗
North Alabama @ Kennesaw State -2.0 126.2 43% 66–64 ✓
UAB @ Charlotte -9.1 120.6 20% 55–70 ✗
UTEP @ North Texas +2.0 135.5 57% 65–74 ✓
Florida International @ Florida Atlantic -1.6 150.6 44% 63–107 ✗
Alabama State @ Alabama A&M +24.0 140.5 99% 63–70 ✓
East Tennessee State @ Furman +12.7 143.1 88% 66–78 ✓
Houston Christian @ Sam Houston +15.5 156.0 92% 80–87 ✓
Eastern Michigan @ Central Michigan +7.8 156.0 76% 64–75 ✓
Morehead State @ Southeast Missouri State +0.4 135.4 51% 64–50 ✗
Norfolk State @ Delaware State -14.2 153.1 10% 87–76 ✓
Washington @ UCLA +18.7 148.9 96% 76–81 ✓
Quinnipiac @ Monmouth +14.0 152.8 90% 63–70 ✓
Fairfield @ Marist +10.0 128.4 82% 55–52 ✗
Murray State @ UT Martin -7.5 145.3 25% 79–57 ✓
Eastern Kentucky @ Eastern Illinois -4.6 157.0 34% 93–85 ✓
Belmont @ Jacksonville State -2.6 136.8 41% 98–91 ✓
Liberty @ Stetson -13.1 141.9 12% 68–58 ✓
Nicholls @ Central Arkansas -2.7 155.0 40% 74–72 ✓
UL Monroe @ Arkansas State -0.1 134.0 50% 72–93 ✗
Texas State @ Little Rock +6.7 139.5 73% 67–56 ✗
App State @ South Alabama +4.7 145.4 67% 83–77 ✗
Louisiana @ UT Arlington +5.8 147.2 70% 68–51 ✗
NJIT @ UAlbany +2.8 132.0 60% 75–83 ✓
Middle Tennessee @ Southern Miss +3.0 114.8 61% 59–64 ✓
New Mexico @ UNLV +12.1 141.6 86% 54–77 ✓
Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ Southern +12.6 145.9 87% 53–88 ✓
Vanderbilt @ Tennessee +22.1 134.3 98% 61–81 ✓
Virginia @ Clemson +1.9 115.7 57% 85–50 ✗
North Florida @ Lipscomb +7.4 141.4 75% 72–67 ✗
Northern Iowa @ Loyola Chicago +12.9 144.7 88% 57–72 ✓
Colorado State @ San José State -23.5 153.2 2% 88–61 ✓
IU Indianapolis @ Northern Kentucky +3.6 136.2 63% 65–63 ✗
Robert Morris @ UIC -0.4 147.0 48% 62–66 ✗
Green Bay @ Detroit Mercy +3.3 154.0 62% 65–68 ✓
Loyola Marymount @ Pacific +3.7 131.5 63% 49–58 ✓
Mississippi Valley State @ Alcorn State +21.2 166.5 97% 59–71 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.