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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
37–17 on winners
spread MAE 8.9
54 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
-5.4 | 148.5 | 31% | 79–80 | ✗ |
|
|
-9.2 | 142.6 | 20% | 74–72 | ✓ |
|
|
+12.6 | 148.7 | 87% | 84–99 | ✓ |
|
|
+6.0 | 156.6 | 71% | 81–74 | ✗ |
|
|
+8.9 | 131.1 | 79% | 49–85 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.3 | 133.1 | 55% | 80–63 | ✗ |
|
|
+11.5 | 150.5 | 85% | 66–82 | ✓ |
|
|
+14.8 | 142.0 | 91% | 65–72 | ✓ |
|
|
+11.0 | 161.7 | 84% | 65–80 | ✓ |
|
|
-20.8 | 129.6 | 3% | 70–53 | ✓ |
|
|
-3.3 | 141.0 | 38% | 83–65 | ✓ |
|
|
+19.1 | 137.3 | 96% | 67–82 | ✓ |
|
|
-6.2 | 130.2 | 29% | 72–78 | ✗ |
|
|
-1.4 | 140.7 | 45% | 72–63 | ✓ |
|
|
+13.8 | 135.0 | 89% | 53–84 | ✓ |
|
|
-6.7 | 122.2 | 27% | 78–82 | ✗ |
|
|
+14.0 | 160.0 | 90% | 80–85 | ✓ |
|
|
+7.9 | 136.8 | 76% | 78–72 | ✗ |
|
|
-0.3 | 136.3 | 49% | 71–74 | ✗ |
|
|
+4.5 | 149.8 | 66% | 67–73 | ✓ |
|
|
+18.3 | 133.5 | 95% | 77–85 | ✓ |
|
|
-12.0 | 149.2 | 14% | 73–59 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.7 | 140.5 | 56% | 86–85 | ✗ |
|
|
+11.5 | 131.1 | 85% | 72–63 | ✗ |
|
|
+6.0 | 134.6 | 71% | 83–72 | ✗ |
|
|
-9.5 | 164.1 | 19% | 96–73 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.3 | 156.8 | 58% | 59–71 | ✓ |
|
|
-6.8 | 141.4 | 27% | 77–67 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.9 | 145.6 | 61% | 72–80 | ✓ |
|
|
+28.6 | 152.0 | 100% | 87–96 | ✓ |
|
|
-8.8 | 139.5 | 21% | 76–65 | ✓ |
|
|
+15.9 | 113.8 | 93% | 60–88 | ✓ |
|
|
+5.1 | 132.4 | 68% | 49–57 | ✓ |
|
|
-1.0 | 134.1 | 46% | 68–67 | ✓ |
|
|
-2.6 | 127.7 | 41% | 68–66 | ✓ |
|
|
+11.8 | 133.1 | 86% | 69–64 | ✗ |
|
|
+14.4 | 124.6 | 90% | 58–75 | ✓ |
|
|
+19.8 | 153.8 | 96% | 89–79 | ✗ |
|
|
+0.6 | 139.5 | 52% | 67–64 | ✗ |
|
|
+7.0 | 154.0 | 74% | 69–67 | ✗ |
|
|
-16.9 | 145.5 | 6% | 65–46 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.8 | 126.0 | 67% | 57–58 | ✓ |
|
|
-0.1 | 123.3 | 50% | 56–57 | ✗ |
|
|
-6.4 | 141.2 | 28% | 74–68 | ✓ |
|
|
+11.0 | 123.3 | 84% | 55–86 | ✓ |
|
|
+10.6 | 135.8 | 83% | 65–79 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.2 | 139.7 | 62% | 77–61 | ✗ |
|
|
-4.0 | 153.5 | 36% | 67–54 | ✓ |
|
|
-6.2 | 130.4 | 29% | 69–63 | ✓ |
|
|
-13.5 | 155.5 | 11% | 83–79 | ✓ |
|
|
+13.9 | 142.3 | 90% | 46–88 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.7 | 140.2 | 63% | 71–83 | ✓ |
|
|
-3.5 | 140.6 | 38% | 64–60 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.6 | 154.7 | 56% | 72–70 | ✗ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.