Betting Lines
| Spread | UVM -17.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 121.5 Over |
| Money | UVM -2500 ME +1800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UVM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UVM +28 | 148 | Won |
| Massey | UVM -16.4 (+11.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 113.4 (+34.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 73% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UVM -13.6 (+14.4) | 125.3 (+22.7) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UVM -14.0 (+14.0) | 124.7 (+23.3) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UVM -14.1 (+13.9) | 125.9 (+22.1) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UVM -15.5 (+12.5) | 125.9 (+22.1) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 5, 2026 | ME 76 – 70 UVM |
| Jan 16, 2026 | UVM 67 – 62 ME |
| Mar 11, 2025 | ME 57 – 42 UVM |
| Feb 15, 2025 | UVM 65 – 61 ME |
| Feb 1, 2025 | UVM 55 – 49 ME |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UVM | ME |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-5 | 2-7 |
| Conference | 10-4 | 2-6 |
| Home | 6-3 | 1-1 |
| Away | 4-2 | 1-6 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.0 | 53.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.4 | 64.6 |
| Massey | 6.0 (#88) | -7.7 (#285) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.91 (#241) | -1.37 (#278) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.38 (#192) | -1.69 (#271) |
| RPI | 0.409 (#294) | 0.411 (#293) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UVM | ME |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.7% | 38.3% |
| 3PT% | 32.7% | 31.2% |
| REB / G | 36.6 | 32.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 7.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.21 | 0.74 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.5% | 45.2% |
| TOV% | 18.1% | 25.0% |
| ORB% | 27.6% | 23.6% |
| FT Rate | 25.5% | 14.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.5% | 46.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.2% | 19.4% |
| DRB% | 78.5% | 70.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.3% | 19.6% |
Game Analysis
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