Betting Lines
| Spread | MEM -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 129.5 Under |
| Money | TLSA +138 MEM -125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TLSA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TLSA +1 | 115 | Won |
| Massey | TLSA -4.3 (-3.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 125.2 (-10.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TLSA -4.5 (-3.5) | 128.6 (-13.6) | 69% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TLSA -3.0 (-2.0) | 129.4 (-14.4) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TLSA -5.2 (-4.2) | 133.1 (-18.1) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TLSA -4.6 (-3.6) | 129.5 (-14.5) | 68% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 22, 2026 | TLSA 83 – 66 MEM |
| Feb 6, 2025 | MEM 83 – 71 TLSA |
| Jan 5, 2024 | MEM 78 – 75 TLSA |
| Jan 29, 2023 | MEM 80 – 68 TLSA |
| Jan 23, 2022 | MEM 83 – 81 TLSA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TLSA | MEM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-12 | 20-8 |
| Conference | 7-9 | 11-4 |
| Home | 7-5 | 10-1 |
| Away | 4-4 | 4-3 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 6-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L3 | W4 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.0 | 72.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.2 | 62.7 |
| Massey | 5.9 (#89) | 4.5 (#106) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.98 (#51) | 0.94 (#107) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.28 (#63) | 1.23 (#106) |
| RPI | 0.559 (#83) | 0.508 (#153) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TLSA | MEM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.8% | 41.3% |
| 3PT% | 28.2% | 30.4% |
| REB / G | 35.6 | 41.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 13.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.03 | 1.06 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.4% | 46.5% |
| TOV% | 20.2% | 20.0% |
| ORB% | 28.1% | 33.6% |
| FT Rate | 19.7% | 19.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.4% | 45.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.5% | 22.8% |
| DRB% | 67.1% | 77.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.0% | 25.7% |
Game Analysis
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