Betting Lines
| Spread | PEPP -12.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Under |
| Money | PEPP -1000 PORT +800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PEPP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PEPP +15 | 145 | Won |
| Massey | PEPP -9.9 (+5.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 162.0 (-17.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 65% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PEPP -8.2 (+6.8) | 155.8 (-10.8) | 82% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PEPP -7.5 (+7.5) | 156.7 (-11.7) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PEPP -9.0 (+6.0) | 155.5 (-10.5) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PEPP -8.2 (+6.8) | 154.2 (-9.2) | 81% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | PORT 77 – 68 PEPP |
| Feb 19, 2026 | PEPP 95 – 87 PORT |
| Jan 15, 2026 | PEPP 67 – 63 PORT |
| Mar 8, 2025 | PEPP 86 – 73 PORT |
| Feb 28, 2025 | PORT 87 – 67 PEPP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PEPP | PORT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-12 | 6-15 |
| Conference | 7-6 | 0-11 |
| Home | 7-5 | 5-8 |
| Away | 3-5 | 1-6 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | W3 | L13 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.6 | 67.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.0 | 85.1 |
| Massey | -2.6 (#213) | -9.7 (#309) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.72 (#229) | -0.79 (#234) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.76 (#215) | -1.91 (#280) |
| RPI | 0.484 (#191) | 0.471 (#210) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PEPP | PORT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.3% | 38.3% |
| 3PT% | 30.9% | 30.2% |
| REB / G | 32.2 | 33.6 |
| OREB / G | 7.5 | 8.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.12 | 0.71 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.6% | 43.1% |
| TOV% | 18.5% | 19.7% |
| ORB% | 21.5% | 23.1% |
| FT Rate | 27.2% | 33.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.2% | 54.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.5% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 65.3% | 69.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.9% | 18.0% |
Game Analysis
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