Betting Lines
| Spread | PUR -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
| Money | PUR -163 PSU +170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PUR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PUR +8 | 152 | Won |
| Massey | PUR -3.0 (+5.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.1 (+5.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PUR -4.0 (+4.0) | 144.5 (+7.5) | 70% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PUR -3.7 (+4.3) | 137.9 (+14.1) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PUR -4.6 (+3.4) | 143.5 (+8.5) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PUR -4.5 (+3.5) | 145.3 (+6.7) | 74% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 10, 2026 | PUR 93 – 85 PSU |
| Dec 5, 2024 | PSU 81 – 70 PUR |
| Jan 13, 2024 | PUR 95 – 78 PSU |
| Mar 12, 2023 | PUR 67 – 65 PSU |
| Feb 1, 2023 | PUR 80 – 60 PSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PUR | PSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-10 | 11-14 |
| Conference | 13-6 | 7-12 |
| Home | 11-1 | 7-5 |
| Away | 5-6 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.0 | 72.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.7 | 73.0 |
| Massey | 11.5 (#34) | 11.3 (#38) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.34 (#37) | 1.52 (#70) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.51 (#33) | 2.90 (#46) |
| RPI | 0.597 (#42) | 0.585 (#54) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PUR | PSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.7% | 44.5% |
| 3PT% | 37.4% | 37.6% |
| REB / G | 36.7 | 34.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 11.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.18 | 1.23 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.1% | 52.3% |
| TOV% | 20.0% | 16.1% |
| ORB% | 31.3% | 31.8% |
| FT Rate | 19.7% | 15.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.7% | 53.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.1% | 21.0% |
| DRB% | 78.7% | 70.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.5% | 30.2% |
Game Analysis
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