Betting Lines
| Spread | NOLA -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Over |
| Money | NOLA -175 MCN +188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NOLA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NOLA +15 | 183 | Won |
| Massey | NOLA -13.0 (+2.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.7 (+35.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NOLA -11.3 (+3.7) | 144.5 (+38.5) | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NOLA -9.9 (+5.1) | 146.6 (+36.4) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NOLA -11.6 (+3.4) | 147.8 (+35.2) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NOLA -11.0 (+4.0) | 146.1 (+36.9) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | MCN 66 – 63 NOLA |
| Jan 24, 2026 | MCN 82 – 63 NOLA |
| Feb 15, 2025 | MCN 78 – 64 NOLA |
| Dec 28, 2024 | MCN 86 – 61 NOLA |
| Mar 7, 2024 | MCN 81 – 57 NOLA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NOLA | MCN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-15 | 10-14 |
| Conference | 8-7 | 4-10 |
| Home | 6-3 | 7-5 |
| Away | 2-10 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.0 | 71.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.2 | 78.1 |
| Massey | -9.0 (#304) | -19.1 (#345) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.96 (#333) | -5.28 (#349) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -4.29 (#335) | -8.02 (#349) |
| RPI | 0.371 (#324) | 0.247 (#349) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NOLA | MCN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.8% | 42.5% |
| 3PT% | 30.9% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 32.1 | 31.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 8.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.77 | 0.83 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.3% | 48.3% |
| TOV% | 24.6% | 23.3% |
| ORB% | 29.2% | 23.5% |
| FT Rate | 22.0% | 25.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.2% | 59.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.4% | 18.3% |
| DRB% | 68.4% | 72.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.9% | 27.1% |
Game Analysis
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