Betting Lines
| Spread | ASU -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Over |
| Money | ORST +220 ASU -225 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ORST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ORST +1 | 159 | Won |
| Massey | ASU -5.3 (+6.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.2 (+9.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 30% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 39% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ASU -2.3 (+3.3) | 146.4 (+12.6) | 40% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ASU -2.2 (+3.2) | 148.3 (+10.7) | 47% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ASU -2.1 (+3.1) | 149.8 (+9.2) | 46% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ASU -3.0 (+4.0) | 147.0 (+12.0) | 43% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 21, 2025 | ORST 78 – 75 ASU |
| Feb 15, 2024 | ASU 79 – 61 ORST |
| Jan 28, 2024 | ORST 84 – 71 ASU |
| Mar 9, 2023 | ASU 63 – 57 ORST |
| Feb 3, 2023 | ASU 68 – 57 ORST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ORST | ASU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 11-14 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 7-10 |
| Home | 10-6 | 7-6 |
| Away | 4-6 | 2-6 |
| Neutral | 6-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.1 | 74.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.4 | 77.1 |
| Massey | -4.7 (#244) | 3.4 (#117) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.83 (#236) | 0.54 (#131) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.59 (#204) | 0.46 (#141) |
| RPI | 0.424 (#275) | 0.524 (#116) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ORST | ASU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.5% | 42.9% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 32.3% |
| REB / G | 35.7 | 32.1 |
| OREB / G | 11.8 | 7.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.39 | 1.01 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.7% | 49.4% |
| TOV% | 16.1% | 14.9% |
| ORB% | 30.2% | 19.2% |
| FT Rate | 27.6% | 25.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.6% | 51.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.4% | 22.7% |
| DRB% | 70.3% | 70.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.5% | 29.9% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.