Betting Lines
| Spread | UCSB -12.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Over |
| Money | UCSB -1150 UCSD +730 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCSB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCSB +31 | 137 | Won |
| Massey | UCSB -13.9 (+17.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.1 (+1.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCSB -11.2 (+19.8) | 137.1 (-0.1) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCSB -10.9 (+20.1) | 135.9 (+1.1) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCSB -13.0 (+18.0) | 134.8 (+2.2) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCSB -12.5 (+18.5) | 135.2 (+1.8) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 8, 2026 | UCSD 64 – 63 UCSB |
| Jan 30, 2026 | UCSB 62 – 48 UCSD |
| Mar 15, 2025 | UCSD 69 – 51 UCSB |
| Jan 24, 2025 | UCSD 77 – 63 UCSB |
| Dec 6, 2024 | UCSD 84 – 76 UCSB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCSB | UCSD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-5 | 7-10 |
| Conference | 13-3 | 0-0 |
| Home | 11-0 | 7-3 |
| Away | 8-4 | 0-7 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 0-2 |
| Streak | L1 | W2 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.4 | 68.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.6 | 76.6 |
| Massey | 2.0 (#134) | -9.1 (#306) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.54 (#130) | -1.96 (#307) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.46 (#142) | -3.08 (#316) |
| RPI | 0.476 (#201) | 0.351 (#334) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCSB | UCSD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.3% | 42.5% |
| 3PT% | 32.5% | 30.2% |
| REB / G | 32.8 | 26.5 |
| OREB / G | 8.9 | 5.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.47 | 0.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.1% | 50.0% |
| TOV% | 15.7% | 24.3% |
| ORB% | 25.9% | 14.9% |
| FT Rate | 25.4% | 10.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.4% | 52.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.4% | 20.0% |
| DRB% | 73.2% | 66.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.6% | 19.3% |
Game Analysis
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