Betting Lines
| Spread | MILW -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Over |
| Money | MILW -150 PFW +150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MILW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PFW +7 | 155 | Lost |
| Massey | MILW -5.5 (-12.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.1 (-1.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 66% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 71% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MILW -4.4 (-11.4) | 150.4 (+4.6) | 70% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MILW -4.2 (-11.2) | 148.1 (+6.9) | 67% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MILW -7.0 (-14.0) | 151.5 (+3.5) | 72% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MILW -3.8 (-10.8) | 151.8 (+3.2) | 65% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 18, 2026 | PFW 100 – 82 MILW |
| Dec 30, 2025 | MILW 77 – 55 PFW |
| Feb 2, 2025 | PFW 81 – 79 MILW |
| Jan 9, 2025 | PFW 78 – 73 MILW |
| Feb 25, 2024 | MILW 96 – 88 PFW |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MILW | PFW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-12 | 8-15 |
| Conference | 7-10 | 6-14 |
| Home | 4-5 | 5-6 |
| Away | 6-6 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.5 | 75.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.3 | 78.7 |
| Massey | 0.4 (#161) | -2.2 (#202) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.38 (#196) | -0.51 (#209) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.48 (#196) | -0.76 (#214) |
| RPI | 0.461 (#225) | 0.468 (#214) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MILW | PFW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.5% | 51.3% |
| 3PT% | 34.1% | 41.7% |
| REB / G | 34.9 | 33.0 |
| OREB / G | 7.4 | 8.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.16 | 0.77 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.2% | 59.1% |
| TOV% | 16.2% | 25.8% |
| ORB% | 21.6% | 30.6% |
| FT Rate | 26.8% | 25.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.7% | 51.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.6% | 19.9% |
| DRB% | 77.2% | 70.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.2% | 19.2% |
Game Analysis
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