Betting Lines
| Spread | HOU -13.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 129.5 Over |
| Money | HOU -1200 UCF +850 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HOU +17 | 133 | Won |
| Massey | HOU -14.4 (+2.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 124.2 (+8.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HOU -11.7 (+5.3) | 130.0 (+3.0) | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HOU -11.9 (+5.1) | 129.5 (+3.5) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HOU -12.3 (+4.7) | 131.3 (+1.7) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HOU -12.3 (+4.7) | 129.4 (+3.6) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 5, 2026 | HOU 79 – 55 UCF |
| Jan 18, 2025 | HOU 69 – 68 UCF |
| Mar 7, 2024 | HOU 67 – 59 UCF |
| Jan 20, 2024 | HOU 57 – 42 UCF |
| Jan 26, 2023 | HOU 82 – 71 UCF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HOU | UCF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-4 | 11-12 |
| Conference | 14-3 | 8-10 |
| Home | 15-0 | 6-3 |
| Away | 5-3 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 8-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.9 | 67.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 58.6 | 69.4 |
| Massey | 17.5 (#9) | 6.0 (#87) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.87 (#4) | 1.56 (#69) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 6.00 (#3) | 2.47 (#55) |
| RPI | 0.687 (#1) | 0.585 (#52) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HOU | UCF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.9% | 40.3% |
| 3PT% | 32.5% | 35.1% |
| REB / G | 42.4 | 34.0 |
| OREB / G | 15.3 | 9.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.92 | 0.78 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.4% | 46.3% |
| TOV% | 18.1% | 19.8% |
| ORB% | 40.5% | 26.2% |
| FT Rate | 27.4% | 25.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 41.1% | 48.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.5% | 21.4% |
| DRB% | 73.6% | 68.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.8% | 23.7% |
Game Analysis
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