Betting Lines
| Spread | LOU -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Over |
| Money | MIA +188 LOU -175 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MIA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MIA +6 | 150 | Won |
| Massey | LOU -5.9 (+11.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 129.7 (+20.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 6% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 4% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LOU -4.7 (+10.7) | 132.7 (+17.3) | 29% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LOU -4.1 (+10.1) | 131.2 (+18.8) | 41% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LOU -4.0 (+10.0) | 131.4 (+18.6) | 42% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | LOU -4.4 (+10.4) | 133.5 (+16.5) | 40% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 12, 2026 | MIA 78 – 73 LOU |
| Mar 7, 2026 | LOU 92 – 89 MIA |
| Feb 8, 2025 | LOU 88 – 78 MIA |
| Jan 11, 2024 | LOU 80 – 71 MIA |
| Feb 12, 2023 | MIA 93 – 85 LOU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MIA | LOU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-17 | 13-7 |
| Conference | 4-15 | 8-5 |
| Home | 7-8 | 9-2 |
| Away | 1-8 | 4-4 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.4 | 68.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.0 | 66.5 |
| Massey | 2.7 (#126) | 11.4 (#36) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.33 (#143) | 3.58 (#9) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.56 (#137) | 4.28 (#19) |
| RPI | 0.500 (#166) | 0.666 (#7) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MIA | LOU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.1% | 47.6% |
| 3PT% | 27.0% | 35.2% |
| REB / G | 38.4 | 37.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 9.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.85 | 0.96 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.6% | 53.0% |
| TOV% | 20.4% | 19.5% |
| ORB% | 29.1% | 30.5% |
| FT Rate | 26.2% | 27.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.6% | 45.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.7% | 17.6% |
| DRB% | 74.6% | 74.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 13.7% | 23.4% |
Game Analysis
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