Betting Lines
| Spread | SFA -12.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
| Money | UIW +600 SFA -800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UIW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SFA +18 | 148 | Lost |
| Massey | SFA -3.1 (-14.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.1 (+6.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 42% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 30% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SFA -1.1 (-16.9) | 136.7 (+11.3) | 33% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SFA -2.1 (-15.9) | 141.9 (+6.1) | 40% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SFA -2.0 (-16.0) | 141.7 (+6.3) | 33% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SFA -1.6 (-16.4) | 142.0 (+6.0) | 30% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 3, 2026 | SFA 76 – 68 UIW |
| Jan 13, 2026 | SFA 56 – 46 UIW |
| Feb 22, 2025 | UIW 63 – 61 SFA |
| Jan 4, 2025 | UIW 55 – 49 SFA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UIW | SFA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8-14 | 16-5 |
| Conference | 5-9 | 12-3 |
| Home | 5-7 | 10-1 |
| Away | 3-6 | 6-4 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L6 | W1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.2 | 77.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.7 | 70.9 |
| Massey | -9.5 (#308) | -3.5 (#222) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.72 (#329) | -1.87 (#299) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -4.68 (#337) | -3.22 (#322) |
| RPI | 0.378 (#319) | 0.407 (#297) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UIW | SFA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.7% | 50.6% |
| 3PT% | 43.4% | 30.3% |
| REB / G | 29.4 | 29.0 |
| OREB / G | 7.0 | 8.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.78 | 0.63 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.7% | 54.6% |
| TOV% | 22.4% | 26.2% |
| ORB% | 22.1% | 30.1% |
| FT Rate | 21.2% | 36.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.6% | 57.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.4% | 28.9% |
| DRB% | 65.7% | 76.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.0% | 42.6% |
Game Analysis
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