Betting Lines
| Spread | SFA -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | UIW +295 SFA -375 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UIW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SFA +8 | 144 | Lost |
| Massey | SFA -8.5 (+0.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.4 (-0.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 9% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 4% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SFA -6.9 (-1.1) | 140.3 (+3.7) | 27% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SFA -7.8 (-0.2) | 139.9 (+4.1) | 22% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SFA -7.3 (-0.7) | 143.0 (+1.0) | 25% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SFA -8.9 (+0.9) | 140.7 (+3.3) | 22% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 13, 2026 | SFA 56 – 46 UIW |
| Feb 22, 2025 | UIW 63 – 61 SFA |
| Jan 4, 2025 | UIW 55 – 49 SFA |
| Jan 17, 2021 | SFA 83 – 65 UIW |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UIW | SFA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-19 | 28-6 |
| Conference | 7-15 | 20-2 |
| Home | 9-6 | 15-1 |
| Away | 2-12 | 12-4 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.4 | 74.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.0 | 66.7 |
| Massey | -5.4 (#253) | 6.1 (#92) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.46 (#299) | 1.38 (#73) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.85 (#297) | 1.80 (#69) |
| RPI | 0.437 (#306) | 0.547 (#76) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UIW | SFA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.9% | 44.7% |
| 3PT% | 36.4% | 35.9% |
| REB / G | 32.4 | 37.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 12.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.93 | 1.42 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.0% | 51.8% |
| TOV% | 17.4% | 14.1% |
| ORB% | 32.6% | 34.9% |
| FT Rate | 25.0% | 21.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.3% | 47.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.9% | 17.6% |
| DRB% | 68.1% | 71.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.3% | 22.6% |
Game Analysis
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