Betting Lines
| Spread | SFA -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Under |
| Money | SFA -380 UIW +300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SFA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SFA +10 | 102 | Won |
| Massey | SFA -11.0 (-1.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.0 (-41.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SFA -9.4 (+0.6) | 137.9 (-35.9) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SFA -11.2 (-1.2) | 137.1 (-35.1) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SFA -10.3 (-0.3) | 136.7 (-34.7) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SFA -11.1 (-1.1) | 136.8 (-34.8) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 3, 2026 | SFA 76 – 68 UIW |
| Feb 22, 2025 | UIW 63 – 61 SFA |
| Jan 4, 2025 | UIW 55 – 49 SFA |
| Jan 17, 2021 | SFA 83 – 65 UIW |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SFA | UIW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-6 | 12-19 |
| Conference | 20-2 | 7-15 |
| Home | 15-1 | 9-6 |
| Away | 12-4 | 2-12 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.9 | 70.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.7 | 75.0 |
| Massey | 7.0 (#93) | -0.6 (#178) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.11 (#90) | -0.95 (#256) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.64 (#84) | -1.10 (#241) |
| RPI | 0.531 (#109) | 0.439 (#279) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SFA | UIW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.8% | 42.8% |
| 3PT% | 36.0% | 36.3% |
| REB / G | 38.4 | 32.2 |
| OREB / G | 12.9 | 11.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.40 | 1.11 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.3% | 49.8% |
| TOV% | 15.0% | 15.0% |
| ORB% | 35.3% | 31.4% |
| FT Rate | 17.7% | 22.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.5% | 53.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.0% | 17.2% |
| DRB% | 71.4% | 67.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.6% | 31.6% |
Game Analysis
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