Then she opened up a book of poems and handed it to me, written by an Italian poet from the thirteenth century. "Tangled Up in Blue" - Bob Dylan
Southland Conference · William R. Johnson Coliseum · January 13, 2026
Betting Lines
Spread SFA -7.5 Home covered
O/U 140.5 Under
Money SFA -380 / UIW +300
Model Predictions
Spread Total SFA win
Actual SFA +10 102 Won
Massey SFA -11.0 (-1.0)
Massey Totals 143.0 (-41.0)
Bradley-Terry 93%
Weighted B-T 97%
Efficiency Plus ML SFA -9.4 (+0.6) 137.9 (-35.9) 81%
Baseline Tuned ML SFA -11.2 (-1.2) 137.1 (-35.1) 85%
Baseline ML SFA -10.3 (-0.3) 136.7 (-34.7) 83%
Baseline Plus ML SFA -11.1 (-1.1) 136.8 (-34.8) 84%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Mar 3, 2026 SFA 7668 UIW
Feb 22, 2025 UIW 6361 SFA
Jan 4, 2025 UIW 5549 SFA
Jan 17, 2021 SFA 8365 UIW

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings SFA UIW
Overall 28-6 12-19
Conference 20-2 7-15
Home 15-1 9-6
Away 12-4 2-12
Neutral 1-1 1-1
Last 5 4-1 3-2
Streak L2 L1
Avg Pts For 74.9 70.4
Avg Pts Against 66.7 75.0
Massey 7.0 (#93) -0.6 (#178)
Bradley-Terry 1.11 (#90) -0.95 (#256)
W. Bradley-Terry 1.64 (#84) -1.10 (#241)
RPI 0.531 (#109) 0.439 (#279)
Shooting & Four Factors SFA UIW
FG% 44.8% 42.8%
3PT% 36.0% 36.3%
REB / G 38.4 32.2
OREB / G 12.9 11.4
AST / TO 1.40 1.11
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 52.3% 49.8%
TOV% 15.0% 15.0%
ORB% 35.3% 31.4%
FT Rate 17.7% 22.8%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 45.5% 53.4%
Opp TOV% 17.0% 17.2%
DRB% 71.4% 67.8%
Opp FT Rate 26.6% 31.6%

Game Analysis

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