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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
6–3 on winners
spread MAE 9.7
9 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Tarleton State
@
Weber State
|
+14.4 | 140.8 | 90% | 79–94 | ✓ |
Cal State Northridge
@
Cal State Fullerton
|
+1.1 | 149.4 | 54% | 77–85 | ✓ |
UNC Wilmington
@
Towson
|
-7.2 | 148.5 | 26% | 69–72 | ✗ |
St. John's
@
UConn
|
+13.6 | 148.8 | 89% | 74–70 | ✗ |
Sacramento State
@
Idaho State
|
+0.0 | 120.7 | 50% | 70–65 | ✗ |
Western Carolina
@
Samford
|
+0.5 | 169.9 | 52% | 78–82 | ✓ |
Saint Joseph's
@
La Salle
|
+2.2 | 148.6 | 58% | 83–90 | ✓ |
Arkansas-Pine Bluff
@
Alcorn State
|
+4.0 | 161.6 | 64% | 48–82 | ✓ |
Mississippi Valley State
@
Southern
|
+32.2 | 142.6 | 100% | 61–102 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.