Betting Lines
| Spread | SOU -22.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SOU +41 | 163 | Won |
| Massey | SOU -31.5 (+9.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.3 (+19.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SOU -32.1 (+8.9) | 143.9 (+19.1) | 91% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SOU -21.3 (+19.7) | 147.3 (+15.7) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SOU -20.8 (+20.2) | 141.3 (+21.7) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SOU -31.7 (+9.3) | 144.3 (+18.7) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 28, 2026 | SOU 80 – 69 MVSU |
| Jan 28, 2025 | SOU 63 – 42 MVSU |
| Jan 30, 2024 | SOU 78 – 54 MVSU |
| Jan 24, 2023 | SOU 84 – 70 MVSU |
| Jan 25, 2022 | SOU 100 – 72 MVSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SOU | MVSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8-11 | 2-22 |
| Conference | 8-6 | 2-13 |
| Home | 5-2 | 1-5 |
| Away | 3-7 | 1-16 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L3 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.8 | 56.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.3 | 87.4 |
| Massey | -5.8 (#262) | -34.5 (#349) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.30 (#190) | -4.49 (#345) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.64 (#207) | -7.16 (#348) |
| RPI | 0.481 (#201) | 0.325 (#345) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SOU | MVSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.1% | 33.2% |
| 3PT% | 33.0% | 31.5% |
| REB / G | 38.5 | 28.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 7.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.81 | 0.64 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.0% | 41.4% |
| TOV% | 23.2% | 22.2% |
| ORB% | 29.4% | 17.5% |
| FT Rate | 21.6% | 10.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.4% | 60.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.5% | 15.8% |
| DRB% | 76.5% | 60.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.1% | 22.7% |
Game Analysis
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