Betting Lines
| Spread | SOU -20.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
| Money | SOU -4000 MVSU +1600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SOU +11 | 149 | Won |
| Massey | SOU -21.7 (-10.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.5 (-1.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SOU -16.8 (-5.8) | 144.3 (+4.7) | 90% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SOU -17.3 (-6.3) | 143.2 (+5.8) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SOU -16.4 (-5.4) | 141.7 (+7.3) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SOU -16.5 (-5.5) | 140.4 (+8.6) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 28, 2025 | SOU 63 – 42 MVSU |
| Jan 30, 2024 | SOU 78 – 54 MVSU |
| Jan 24, 2023 | SOU 84 – 70 MVSU |
| Jan 25, 2022 | SOU 100 – 72 MVSU |
| Jan 18, 2021 | SOU 102 – 61 MVSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SOU | MVSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-17 | 3-30 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 2-16 |
| Home | 8-4 | 2-9 |
| Away | 7-12 | 1-18 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.2 | 63.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 80.2 | 83.7 |
| Massey | -7.7 (#286) | -26.2 (#365) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.41 (#292) | -5.01 (#365) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.59 (#274) | -6.94 (#365) |
| RPI | 0.431 (#295) | 0.328 (#364) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SOU | MVSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.7% | 39.1% |
| 3PT% | 33.8% | 28.2% |
| REB / G | 34.9 | 29.5 |
| OREB / G | 12.1 | 8.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.91 | 0.70 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.2% | 43.4% |
| TOV% | 17.8% | 23.1% |
| ORB% | 30.9% | 25.7% |
| FT Rate | 25.5% | 22.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.5% | 57.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.0% | 17.0% |
| DRB% | 67.0% | 63.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 36.2% | 34.9% |
Game Analysis
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