Betting Lines
| Spread | SOU -21.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | SOU -4000 MVSU +1400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SOU +28 | 172 | Won |
| Massey | SOU -24.5 (+3.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.5 (+21.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SOU -18.3 (+9.7) | 153.1 (+18.9) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SOU -19.7 (+8.3) | 150.6 (+21.4) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SOU -21.9 (+6.1) | 150.1 (+21.9) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SOU -20.8 (+7.2) | 152.6 (+19.4) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 28, 2026 | SOU 80 – 69 MVSU |
| Jan 28, 2025 | SOU 63 – 42 MVSU |
| Jan 30, 2024 | SOU 78 – 54 MVSU |
| Jan 24, 2023 | SOU 84 – 70 MVSU |
| Jan 18, 2021 | SOU 102 – 61 MVSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SOU | MVSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-14 | 2-26 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 2-16 |
| Home | 10-2 | 0-11 |
| Away | 8-11 | 2-15 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.1 | 67.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.4 | 83.0 |
| Massey | -0.1 (#165) | -21.2 (#357) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.09 (#180) | -3.75 (#354) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.39 (#203) | -4.95 (#354) |
| RPI | 0.500 (#169) | 0.338 (#354) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SOU | MVSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.6% | 36.6% |
| 3PT% | 37.6% | 28.9% |
| REB / G | 29.7 | 30.7 |
| OREB / G | 8.6 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.88 | 0.83 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.7% | 42.2% |
| TOV% | 20.0% | 18.4% |
| ORB% | 24.8% | 23.9% |
| FT Rate | 21.3% | 17.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.8% | 59.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 25.6% | 21.9% |
| DRB% | 66.3% | 65.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 33.0% | 27.1% |
Game Analysis
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