Betting Lines
| Spread | SOU -22.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Under |
| Money | MVSU +2500 SOU -10000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MVSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SOU +21 | 105 | Lost |
| Massey | SOU -23.6 (+2.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.1 (-26.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 1% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 0% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SOU -17.1 (-3.9) | 128.2 (-23.2) | 11% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SOU -14.5 (-6.5) | 127.8 (-22.8) | 11% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SOU -15.9 (-5.1) | 130.3 (-25.3) | 12% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SOU -17.0 (-4.0) | 129.1 (-24.1) | 11% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 28, 2026 | SOU 80 – 69 MVSU |
| Jan 30, 2024 | SOU 78 – 54 MVSU |
| Jan 24, 2023 | SOU 84 – 70 MVSU |
| Jan 25, 2022 | SOU 100 – 72 MVSU |
| Jan 18, 2021 | SOU 102 – 61 MVSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MVSU | SOU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 3-28 | 20-12 |
| Conference | 1-17 | 15-3 |
| Home | 2-9 | 11-1 |
| Away | 1-19 | 9-10 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L9 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 52.4 | 70.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 82.3 | 69.5 |
| Massey | -29.8 (#364) | -2.8 (#214) |
| Bradley-Terry | -5.22 (#364) | -0.07 (#186) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -7.05 (#364) | -0.27 (#194) |
| RPI | 0.355 (#359) | 0.499 (#183) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MVSU | SOU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 36.8% | 41.5% |
| 3PT% | 25.8% | 29.3% |
| REB / G | 26.9 | 36.1 |
| OREB / G | 8.1 | 12.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.44 | 0.92 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 40.5% | 46.4% |
| TOV% | 25.2% | 19.1% |
| ORB% | 23.8% | 33.5% |
| FT Rate | 18.5% | 22.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 60.2% | 51.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.3% | 21.2% |
| DRB% | 60.2% | 69.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.0% | 29.7% |
Game Analysis
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