Betting Lines
| Spread | SOU -19.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Under |
| Money | SOU -10000 MVSU +1400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SOU +24 | 132 | Won |
| Massey | SOU -23.3 (+0.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.1 (-2.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SOU -18.2 (+5.8) | 136.2 (-4.2) | 91% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SOU -17.0 (+7.0) | 133.5 (-1.5) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SOU -16.9 (+7.1) | 135.3 (-3.3) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SOU -16.6 (+7.4) | 134.8 (-2.8) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 28, 2026 | SOU 80 – 69 MVSU |
| Jan 28, 2025 | SOU 63 – 42 MVSU |
| Jan 24, 2023 | SOU 84 – 70 MVSU |
| Jan 25, 2022 | SOU 100 – 72 MVSU |
| Jan 18, 2021 | SOU 102 – 61 MVSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SOU | MVSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-14 | 1-30 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 1-17 |
| Home | 11-2 | 1-8 |
| Away | 7-11 | 0-22 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L2 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.9 | 55.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.6 | 77.7 |
| Massey | -4.2 (#250) | -23.9 (#363) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.19 (#194) | -4.78 (#363) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.44 (#212) | -6.55 (#363) |
| RPI | 0.496 (#181) | 0.365 (#357) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SOU | MVSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.6% | 37.3% |
| 3PT% | 29.4% | 26.9% |
| REB / G | 30.4 | 29.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.1 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.95 | 0.45 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.1% | 40.7% |
| TOV% | 18.0% | 25.5% |
| ORB% | 24.6% | 28.4% |
| FT Rate | 20.5% | 20.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.6% | 57.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.1% | 16.7% |
| DRB% | 65.4% | 62.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.4% | 29.1% |
Game Analysis
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