Betting Lines
| Spread | SOU -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
| Money | MVSU +400 SOU -450 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MVSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SOU +14 | 154 | Lost |
| Massey | SOU -9.8 (-4.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.4 (+18.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 15% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 15% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SOU -8.2 (-5.8) | 137.8 (+16.2) | 17% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SOU -8.3 (-5.7) | 136.9 (+17.1) | 19% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SOU -9.2 (-4.8) | 136.8 (+17.2) | 17% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SOU -8.2 (-5.8) | 138.8 (+15.2) | 17% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 28, 2026 | SOU 80 – 69 MVSU |
| Jan 28, 2025 | SOU 63 – 42 MVSU |
| Jan 30, 2024 | SOU 78 – 54 MVSU |
| Jan 25, 2022 | SOU 100 – 72 MVSU |
| Jan 18, 2021 | SOU 102 – 61 MVSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MVSU | SOU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 5-27 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 11-7 |
| Home | 4-6 | 9-2 |
| Away | 1-19 | 5-12 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 61.0 | 69.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.8 | 71.7 |
| Massey | -16.1 (#358) | -2.7 (#225) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.93 (#355) | -0.56 (#231) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.37 (#354) | -0.88 (#235) |
| RPI | 0.364 (#353) | 0.476 (#219) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MVSU | SOU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.2% | 42.0% |
| 3PT% | 30.9% | 36.5% |
| REB / G | 32.3 | 30.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 7.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.55 | 0.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 42.2% | 49.4% |
| TOV% | 24.1% | 21.0% |
| ORB% | 29.9% | 21.6% |
| FT Rate | 23.0% | 24.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.3% | 52.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.4% | 23.9% |
| DRB% | 66.5% | 70.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.8% | 32.8% |
Game Analysis
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