Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCW -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | TOW +140 UNCW -125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TOW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TOW +3 | 141 | Won |
| Massey | UNCW -5.9 (+8.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.9 (-6.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 14% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 9% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCW -3.7 (+6.7) | 145.4 (-4.4) | 34% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCW -4.0 (+7.0) | 144.5 (-3.5) | 44% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCW -3.6 (+6.6) | 146.4 (-5.4) | 46% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UNCW -4.3 (+7.3) | 146.3 (-5.3) | 45% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 30, 2026 | UNCW 82 – 73 TOW |
| Jan 3, 2025 | TOW 65 – 61 UNCW |
| Mar 10, 2024 | TOW 66 – 56 UNCW |
| Mar 2, 2024 | UNCW 75 – 64 TOW |
| Jan 6, 2024 | TOW 67 – 64 UNCW |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TOW | UNCW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 4-14 | 7-10 |
| Conference | 3-9 | 1-6 |
| Home | 4-4 | 3-4 |
| Away | 0-6 | 3-4 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.4 | 73.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.9 | 74.2 |
| Massey | -7.1 (#277) | 1.5 (#141) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.75 (#295) | 0.58 (#128) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.30 (#296) | 0.62 (#137) |
| RPI | 0.400 (#305) | 0.538 (#103) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TOW | UNCW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.2% | 43.5% |
| 3PT% | 29.0% | 36.7% |
| REB / G | 40.3 | 34.6 |
| OREB / G | 12.8 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.63 | 0.75 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.3% | 50.3% |
| TOV% | 20.6% | 19.3% |
| ORB% | 34.2% | 29.8% |
| FT Rate | 22.9% | 33.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.4% | 49.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.6% | 19.3% |
| DRB% | 69.9% | 69.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.7% | 19.9% |
Game Analysis
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