Betting Lines
| Spread | WCU -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 163.5 Under |
| Money | SAM +130 WCU -120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SAM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SAM +4 | 160 | Won |
| Massey | SAM -0.3 (+3.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 169.3 (-9.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 41% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 36% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SAM -1.3 (+2.7) | 160.7 (-0.7) | 56% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SAM -1.0 (+3.0) | 154.7 (+5.3) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SAM -1.2 (+2.8) | 159.4 (+0.6) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SAM -1.1 (+2.9) | 161.3 (-1.3) | 61% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 1, 2026 | SAM 88 – 74 WCU |
| Jan 8, 2026 | SAM 82 – 77 WCU |
| Feb 22, 2025 | SAM 93 – 72 WCU |
| Jan 4, 2025 | SAM 88 – 69 WCU |
| Feb 15, 2024 | SAM 88 – 62 WCU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SAM | WCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 6-13 | 11-16 |
| Conference | 2-9 | 4-13 |
| Home | 4-5 | 6-5 |
| Away | 2-7 | 4-9 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L6 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.3 | 74.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.6 | 79.5 |
| Massey | -3.3 (#220) | -0.9 (#175) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.59 (#211) | 0.27 (#152) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.47 (#196) | 0.69 (#131) |
| RPI | 0.489 (#186) | 0.520 (#131) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SAM | WCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.6% | 46.0% |
| 3PT% | 29.5% | 33.8% |
| REB / G | 39.6 | 35.1 |
| OREB / G | 12.2 | 8.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.90 | 0.87 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.3% | 53.0% |
| TOV% | 20.4% | 20.2% |
| ORB% | 30.9% | 25.3% |
| FT Rate | 18.0% | 30.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.8% | 52.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.8% | 17.4% |
| DRB% | 73.1% | 72.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.7% | 25.2% |
Game Analysis
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