Betting Lines
| Spread | WEB -12.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
| Money | WEB -1150 TAR +730 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WEB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WEB +15 | 173 | Won |
| Massey | WEB -14.1 (+0.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.1 (+31.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WEB -12.8 (+2.2) | 140.9 (+32.1) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WEB -10.6 (+4.4) | 141.1 (+31.9) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WEB -12.5 (+2.5) | 140.7 (+32.3) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | WEB -12.4 (+2.6) | 141.9 (+31.1) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 30, 2022 | TAR 75 – 65 WEB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WEB | TAR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-6 | 10-10 |
| Conference | 12-3 | 5-7 |
| Home | 11-0 | 6-3 |
| Away | 6-5 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | W3 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.2 | 63.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.8 | 68.1 |
| Massey | 5.3 (#100) | -6.1 (#264) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.62 (#215) | -3.48 (#338) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.81 (#216) | -4.58 (#336) |
| RPI | 0.524 (#122) | 0.350 (#337) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WEB | TAR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.6% | 41.4% |
| 3PT% | 31.2% | 37.1% |
| REB / G | 34.6 | 28.7 |
| OREB / G | 7.2 | 6.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.86 | 0.80 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.7% | 47.4% |
| TOV% | 20.1% | 20.5% |
| ORB% | 21.2% | 18.4% |
| FT Rate | 29.8% | 29.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.6% | 52.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.1% | 22.5% |
| DRB% | 69.5% | 70.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.8% | 39.6% |
Game Analysis
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