Betting Lines
| Spread | CONN -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
| Money | CONN -250 SJU +260 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CONN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SJU +4 | 144 | Lost |
| Massey | CONN -12.8 (-16.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.1 (-5.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CONN -11.7 (-15.7) | 146.2 (-2.2) | 87% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CONN -10.5 (-14.5) | 145.8 (-1.8) | 81% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CONN -9.8 (-13.8) | 147.3 (-3.3) | 83% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | CONN -11.0 (-15.0) | 146.9 (-2.9) | 83% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 14, 2026 | SJU 72 – 52 CONN |
| Feb 26, 2026 | CONN 72 – 40 SJU |
| Feb 7, 2026 | SJU 81 – 72 CONN |
| Feb 23, 2025 | SJU 89 – 75 CONN |
| Feb 8, 2025 | SJU 68 – 62 CONN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CONN | SJU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-8 | 16-11 |
| Conference | 11-6 | 10-9 |
| Home | 7-3 | 11-3 |
| Away | 6-3 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.7 | 79.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.6 | 76.7 |
| Massey | 13.8 (#23) | 3.8 (#114) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.05 (#18) | 0.67 (#122) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.47 (#15) | 1.14 (#114) |
| RPI | 0.634 (#17) | 0.496 (#174) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CONN | SJU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.4% | 44.7% |
| 3PT% | 35.5% | 34.2% |
| REB / G | 38.9 | 36.2 |
| OREB / G | 14.5 | 11.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 1.34 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.5% | 50.0% |
| TOV% | 19.0% | 17.1% |
| ORB% | 39.5% | 28.6% |
| FT Rate | 22.4% | 20.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.4% | 55.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.2% | 23.2% |
| DRB% | 69.1% | 71.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.8% | 21.2% |
Game Analysis
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