Betting Lines
| Spread | ALCN -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Under |
| Money | ALCN -150 UAPB +163 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ALCN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ALCN +34 | 130 | Won |
| Massey | ALCN -2.8 (+31.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 161.0 (-31.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 43% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 46% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ALCN -1.8 (+32.2) | 156.5 (-26.5) | 57% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ALCN -2.8 (+31.2) | 141.6 (-11.6) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALCN -4.1 (+29.9) | 149.0 (-19.0) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ALCN -3.9 (+30.1) | 152.4 (-22.4) | 68% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | UAPB 83 – 48 ALCN |
| Feb 7, 2026 | UAPB 84 – 77 ALCN |
| Mar 8, 2025 | ALCN 65 – 63 UAPB |
| Feb 8, 2025 | ALCN 79 – 60 UAPB |
| Mar 9, 2024 | ALCN 104 – 95 UAPB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ALCN | UAPB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 6-13 | 4-21 |
| Conference | 6-7 | 3-12 |
| Home | 4-3 | 2-3 |
| Away | 2-9 | 2-17 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.1 | 62.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.6 | 76.8 |
| Massey | -18.3 (#341) | -18.3 (#343) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.41 (#324) | -1.63 (#290) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.66 (#329) | -2.94 (#316) |
| RPI | 0.434 (#263) | 0.433 (#265) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ALCN | UAPB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.3% | 37.2% |
| 3PT% | 26.4% | 31.8% |
| REB / G | 29.6 | 32.1 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.43 | 0.59 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.1% | 41.8% |
| TOV% | 21.8% | 22.4% |
| ORB% | 30.1% | 26.4% |
| FT Rate | 27.5% | 30.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 61.2% | 58.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.6% | 16.4% |
| DRB% | 61.6% | 68.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 37.0% | 27.2% |
Game Analysis
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