Betting Lines
| Spread | IDST -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 123.5 Over |
| Money | IDST -110 SAC +120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | IDST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SAC +5 | 135 | Lost |
| Massey | SAC -0.1 (-4.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 120.0 (+15.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 80% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 77% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | IDST -1.3 (-6.3) | 126.8 (+8.2) | 52% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | IDST -1.0 (-6.0) | 125.2 (+9.8) | 40% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | IDST -0.1 (-5.1) | 126.3 (+8.7) | 42% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | IDST -1.2 (-6.2) | 125.1 (+9.9) | 44% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 3, 2026 | SAC 83 – 65 IDST |
| Jan 2, 2026 | IDST 97 – 84 SAC |
| Feb 23, 2025 | IDST 83 – 66 SAC |
| Jan 24, 2025 | SAC 75 – 71 IDST |
| Feb 9, 2024 | IDST 68 – 40 SAC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | IDST | SAC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-11 | 8-12 |
| Conference | 8-6 | 5-9 |
| Home | 8-3 | 5-3 |
| Away | 5-5 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 61.8 | 69.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.5 | 73.9 |
| Massey | -5.0 (#249) | -2.1 (#203) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.89 (#237) | -1.74 (#294) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.58 (#260) | -2.22 (#292) |
| RPI | 0.474 (#211) | 0.406 (#301) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | IDST | SAC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.5% | 42.1% |
| 3PT% | 30.5% | 37.1% |
| REB / G | 33.4 | 31.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.3 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.66 | 0.84 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.4% | 47.3% |
| TOV% | 26.1% | 17.4% |
| ORB% | 31.0% | 26.1% |
| FT Rate | 26.3% | 19.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.2% | 47.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.5% | 25.7% |
| DRB% | 74.3% | 73.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.2% | 26.2% |
Game Analysis
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