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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
8–4 on winners
spread MAE 9.6
12 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Florida State
@
Louisville
|
+1.4 | 144.9 | 55% | 78–65 | ✗ |
The Citadel
@
UNC Greensboro
|
+7.6 | 167.5 | 75% | 73–87 | ✓ |
VMI
@
East Tennessee State
|
+4.7 | 142.2 | 66% | 81–92 | ✓ |
Kansas
@
Baylor
|
+12.6 | 146.1 | 87% | 69–77 | ✓ |
Wyoming
@
Air Force
|
+0.5 | 140.7 | 52% | 77–58 | ✗ |
Grambling
@
Prairie View A&M
|
+2.9 | 136.8 | 60% | 50–59 | ✓ |
New Mexico
@
UNLV
|
+15.0 | 139.7 | 91% | 46–53 | ✓ |
UNC Wilmington
@
Towson
|
-5.0 | 147.0 | 33% | 74–78 | ✗ |
Buffalo
@
Kent State
|
+5.6 | 162.7 | 69% | 81–84 | ✓ |
High Point
@
Longwood
|
+0.2 | 132.9 | 51% | 54–75 | ✓ |
Purdue
@
Ohio State
|
+4.7 | 139.9 | 67% | 67–65 | ✗ |
Kansas State
@
Oklahoma
|
+15.3 | 139.4 | 92% | 50–76 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.