Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCW -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | TOW +150 UNCW -138 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TOW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TOW +4 | 152 | Won |
| Massey | UNCW -3.9 (+7.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.5 (+5.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 36% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 25% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCW -1.9 (+5.9) | 144.3 (+7.7) | 43% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCW -1.8 (+5.8) | 144.5 (+7.5) | 43% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCW -2.7 (+6.7) | 146.7 (+5.3) | 43% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UNCW -2.2 (+6.2) | 144.4 (+7.6) | 42% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 30, 2026 | UNCW 82 – 73 TOW |
| Jan 3, 2025 | TOW 65 – 61 UNCW |
| Mar 10, 2024 | TOW 66 – 56 UNCW |
| Mar 2, 2024 | UNCW 75 – 64 TOW |
| Jan 6, 2024 | TOW 67 – 64 UNCW |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TOW | UNCW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 4-14 | 7-10 |
| Conference | 3-9 | 1-6 |
| Home | 4-4 | 3-4 |
| Away | 0-6 | 3-4 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.4 | 73.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.9 | 74.2 |
| Massey | -6.0 (#263) | 0.7 (#154) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.98 (#246) | 0.09 (#160) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.47 (#256) | 0.18 (#155) |
| RPI | 0.432 (#270) | 0.503 (#159) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TOW | UNCW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.1% | 42.5% |
| 3PT% | 26.3% | 36.2% |
| REB / G | 40.3 | 34.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.4 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.61 | 0.73 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.7% | 49.2% |
| TOV% | 20.4% | 19.0% |
| ORB% | 34.1% | 28.9% |
| FT Rate | 23.8% | 33.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.7% | 49.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.8% | 19.3% |
| DRB% | 70.9% | 69.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.8% | 21.0% |
Game Analysis
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