Betting Lines
| Spread | PV -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Under |
| Money | PV -188 GRAM +200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PV +9 | 109 | Won |
| Massey | PV -3.7 (+5.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.9 (-26.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 81% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PV -2.6 (+6.4) | 137.3 (-28.3) | 63% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PV -4.1 (+4.9) | 133.7 (-24.7) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PV -3.2 (+5.8) | 137.1 (-28.1) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PV -2.6 (+6.4) | 136.4 (-27.4) | 58% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 17, 2026 | PV 68 – 63 GRAM |
| Jan 3, 2026 | GRAM 76 – 72 PV |
| Feb 18, 2025 | GRAM 70 – 48 PV |
| Jan 4, 2025 | PV 73 – 55 GRAM |
| Feb 20, 2024 | GRAM 83 – 74 PV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PV | GRAM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-5 | 12-12 |
| Conference | 13-0 | 9-6 |
| Home | 8-0 | 6-4 |
| Away | 5-3 | 5-7 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.3 | 67.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.2 | 69.1 |
| Massey | -6.3 (#270) | -7.2 (#280) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.27 (#187) | -1.21 (#267) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.59 (#203) | -1.98 (#282) |
| RPI | 0.484 (#194) | 0.442 (#254) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PV | GRAM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.4% | 42.0% |
| 3PT% | 30.9% | 31.2% |
| REB / G | 33.5 | 34.4 |
| OREB / G | 12.2 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.86 | 0.77 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.3% | 46.7% |
| TOV% | 22.8% | 23.3% |
| ORB% | 32.2% | 26.9% |
| FT Rate | 15.9% | 26.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.9% | 45.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.2% | 19.9% |
| DRB% | 60.4% | 66.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 36.4% | 28.0% |
Game Analysis
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