Betting Lines
| Spread | PV -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Over |
| Money | PV -125 GRAM +100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GRAM +9 | 157 | Lost |
| Massey | PV -2.5 (-11.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.4 (+22.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 60% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 58% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PV -1.0 (-10.0) | 135.0 (+22.0) | 55% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PV -1.1 (-10.1) | 133.8 (+23.2) | 46% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PV -1.3 (-10.3) | 133.1 (+23.9) | 56% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | PV -0.9 (-9.9) | 134.6 (+22.4) | 54% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 17, 2026 | PV 68 – 63 GRAM |
| Jan 3, 2026 | GRAM 76 – 72 PV |
| Feb 18, 2025 | GRAM 70 – 48 PV |
| Jan 4, 2025 | PV 73 – 55 GRAM |
| Jan 6, 2024 | GRAM 69 – 63 PV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PV | GRAM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-21 | 21-15 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 14-4 |
| Home | 5-6 | 9-3 |
| Away | 4-15 | 7-9 |
| Neutral | 1-0 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L7 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.8 | 65.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.3 | 69.5 |
| Massey | -10.3 (#323) | -9.4 (#314) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.08 (#280) | -0.87 (#259) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.51 (#291) | -1.15 (#265) |
| RPI | 0.439 (#290) | 0.473 (#229) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PV | GRAM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.0% | 41.6% |
| 3PT% | 30.6% | 31.2% |
| REB / G | 30.4 | 29.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 9.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.89 | 0.60 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.9% | 46.3% |
| TOV% | 17.5% | 20.4% |
| ORB% | 26.9% | 28.2% |
| FT Rate | 27.2% | 24.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.1% | 50.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.1% | 19.3% |
| DRB% | 64.6% | 66.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 33.3% | 26.4% |
Game Analysis
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