Betting Lines
| Spread | GRAM -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Under |
| Money | PV +105 GRAM -125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PV +5 | 131 | Won |
| Massey | GRAM -1.6 (+6.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.6 (-21.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 39% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 38% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GRAM -1.7 (+6.7) | 143.3 (-12.3) | 49% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GRAM -1.1 (+6.1) | 144.7 (-13.7) | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GRAM -2.0 (+7.0) | 143.8 (-12.8) | 42% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | GRAM -1.7 (+6.7) | 145.1 (-14.1) | 41% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 3, 2026 | GRAM 76 – 72 PV |
| Feb 18, 2025 | GRAM 70 – 48 PV |
| Jan 4, 2025 | PV 73 – 55 GRAM |
| Feb 20, 2024 | GRAM 83 – 74 PV |
| Jan 6, 2024 | GRAM 69 – 63 PV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PV | GRAM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-18 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 7-11 |
| Home | 10-3 | 7-5 |
| Away | 3-13 | 4-13 |
| Neutral | 6-2 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.8 | 69.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.9 | 71.3 |
| Massey | -12.7 (#335) | -8.1 (#291) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.17 (#338) | -1.22 (#281) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.69 (#335) | -1.62 (#284) |
| RPI | 0.388 (#355) | 0.443 (#287) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PV | GRAM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.3% | 43.5% |
| 3PT% | 32.2% | 31.8% |
| REB / G | 31.4 | 31.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.4 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.87 | 0.81 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.3% | 49.8% |
| TOV% | 16.3% | 21.5% |
| ORB% | 24.9% | 29.8% |
| FT Rate | 33.7% | 32.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.0% | 50.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.7% | 20.5% |
| DRB% | 62.9% | 67.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 35.0% | 30.1% |
Game Analysis
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