Betting Lines
| Spread | ETSU -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | ETSU -300 VMI +320 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ETSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ETSU +11 | 173 | Won |
| Massey | ETSU -4.7 (+6.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.6 (+30.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 72% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ETSU -4.3 (+6.7) | 144.6 (+28.4) | 71% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ETSU -4.1 (+6.9) | 145.7 (+27.3) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ETSU -4.3 (+6.7) | 146.8 (+26.2) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ETSU -4.0 (+7.0) | 145.8 (+27.2) | 68% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 7, 2026 | ETSU 87 – 70 VMI |
| Jan 8, 2026 | ETSU 81 – 67 VMI |
| Feb 5, 2025 | ETSU 62 – 55 VMI |
| Jan 1, 2025 | ETSU 84 – 69 VMI |
| Mar 9, 2024 | ETSU 98 – 66 VMI |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ETSU | VMI |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-12 | 13-12 |
| Conference | 8-7 | 7-7 |
| Home | 8-4 | 11-1 |
| Away | 3-5 | 1-10 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.6 | 77.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.3 | 77.1 |
| Massey | 1.2 (#148) | -0.7 (#171) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.04 (#164) | -0.41 (#202) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.67 (#132) | -0.51 (#198) |
| RPI | 0.520 (#133) | 0.465 (#221) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ETSU | VMI |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.9% | 44.9% |
| 3PT% | 29.6% | 38.1% |
| REB / G | 36.3 | 36.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.9 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.68 | 1.01 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.1% | 53.3% |
| TOV% | 23.7% | 18.7% |
| ORB% | 30.3% | 23.3% |
| FT Rate | 21.9% | 24.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.2% | 51.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.6% | 15.0% |
| DRB% | 70.7% | 73.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.5% | 19.9% |
Game Analysis
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