Betting Lines
| Spread | LOU -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
| Money | LOU -150 FSU +160 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FSU +13 | 143 | Lost |
| Massey | LOU -1.0 (-14.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.7 (-1.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 77% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 76% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LOU -3.6 (-16.6) | 144.7 (-1.7) | 66% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LOU -0.7 (-13.7) | 138.5 (+4.5) | 56% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LOU -3.0 (-16.0) | 142.9 (+0.1) | 64% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | LOU -3.1 (-16.1) | 145.0 (-2.0) | 66% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 22, 2025 | LOU 89 – 81 FSU |
| Dec 21, 2024 | LOU 90 – 76 FSU |
| Feb 4, 2024 | LOU 101 – 92 FSU |
| Feb 4, 2023 | FSU 81 – 78 LOU |
| Dec 10, 2022 | FSU 75 – 53 LOU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LOU | FSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-7 | 18-7 |
| Conference | 8-5 | 11-4 |
| Home | 9-2 | 12-1 |
| Away | 4-4 | 3-4 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.0 | 74.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.5 | 66.5 |
| Massey | 10.4 (#47) | 12.1 (#31) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.86 (#22) | 2.15 (#44) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.41 (#34) | 2.80 (#48) |
| RPI | 0.640 (#12) | 0.589 (#50) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LOU | FSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.3% | 46.8% |
| 3PT% | 33.0% | 38.2% |
| REB / G | 37.1 | 35.9 |
| OREB / G | 9.1 | 11.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.99 | 1.07 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.4% | 54.0% |
| TOV% | 18.6% | 19.3% |
| ORB% | 29.6% | 34.5% |
| FT Rate | 26.9% | 27.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.5% | 48.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.6% | 21.1% |
| DRB% | 74.0% | 69.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.1% | 25.3% |
Game Analysis
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