The black queen chants the funeral march, the cracked brass bells will ring / To summon back the fire witch to the court of the crimson king "The Court of the Crimson King" - King Crimson
Atlantic Coast Conference · KFC Yum! Center · February 22, 2025
Betting Lines
Spread LOU -13.5 Away covered
O/U 154.5 Over
Money LOU -1600 / FSU +800
Model Predictions
Spread Total LOU win
Actual LOU +8 170 Won
Massey LOU -12.8 (-4.8)
Massey Totals 148.2 (+21.8)
Bradley-Terry 92%
Weighted B-T 95%
Baseline ML LOU -12.1 (-4.1) 146.8 (+23.2) 88%
Baseline Plus ML LOU -13.4 (-5.4) 147.7 (+22.3) 88%
Efficiency Plus ML LOU -10.4 (-2.4) 150.0 (+20.0) 87%
Baseline Tuned ML LOU -12.8 (-4.8) 146.6 (+23.4) 88%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Dec 21, 2024 LOU 9076 FSU
Feb 4, 2024 LOU 10192 FSU
Feb 4, 2023 FSU 8178 LOU
Dec 10, 2022 FSU 7553 LOU
Jan 9, 2022 FSU 7970 LOU

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings LOU FSU
Overall 27-8 17-15
Conference 18-2 8-12
Home 14-3 11-5
Away 9-2 2-9
Neutral 4-3 4-1
Last 5 4-1 3-2
Streak L2 L1
Avg Pts For 78.5 74.5
Avg Pts Against 69.5 72.5
Massey 16.5 (#24) 6.9 (#83)
Bradley-Terry 2.80 (#19) 0.95 (#93)
W. Bradley-Terry 3.48 (#25) 1.18 (#92)
RPI 0.617 (#22) 0.531 (#117)
Shooting & Four Factors LOU FSU
FG% 45.1% 45.4%
3PT% 32.8% 31.4%
REB / G 38.1 35.5
OREB / G 11.8 10.5
AST / TO 1.30 1.08
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 53.3% 50.7%
TOV% 16.1% 17.6%
ORB% 33.3% 30.4%
FT Rate 24.8% 28.7%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 49.9% 47.7%
Opp TOV% 18.9% 19.8%
DRB% 73.8% 69.2%
Opp FT Rate 18.8% 26.1%

Game Analysis

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