I'm not a coward; I've just never been tested. "The Impression That I Get" - The Mighty Mighty Bosstones
Atlantic Coast Conference · Tucker Center · December 10, 2022
Betting Lines
Spread FSU -9.5 Home covered
O/U 138.5 Under
Money FSU -500 / LOU +450
Model Predictions
Spread Total FSU win
Actual FSU +22 128 Won
Massey FSU -14.8 (+7.2)
Massey Totals 133.1 (-5.1)
Bradley-Terry 95%
Weighted B-T 98%
Baseline ML FSU -10.0 (+12.0) 133.8 (-5.8) 86%
Baseline Plus ML FSU -11.2 (+10.8) 136.1 (-8.1) 85%
Efficiency Plus ML FSU -10.5 (+11.5) 133.4 (-5.4) 86%
Baseline Tuned ML FSU -10.0 (+12.0) 133.8 (-5.8) 85%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Feb 22, 2025 LOU 8981 FSU
Dec 21, 2024 LOU 9076 FSU
Feb 4, 2024 LOU 10192 FSU
Feb 4, 2023 FSU 8178 LOU
Jan 9, 2022 FSU 7970 LOU

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings FSU LOU
Overall 9-23 4-28
Conference 7-13 2-18
Home 5-11 4-13
Away 4-7 0-11
Neutral 0-5 0-4
Last 5 0-5 0-5
Streak L3 L5
Avg Pts For 69.3 63.9
Avg Pts Against 76.2 75.8
Massey -4.5 (#253) -14.1 (#355)
Bradley-Terry -2.42 (#334) -4.31 (#362)
W. Bradley-Terry -2.53 (#314) -5.29 (#355)
RPI 0.425 (#287) 0.417 (#295)
Shooting & Four Factors FSU LOU
FG% 40.6% 37.4%
3PT% 31.8% 27.2%
REB / G 32.3 32.2
OREB / G 9.6 8.0
AST / TO 0.93 0.42
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 45.5% 42.3%
TOV% 19.4% 24.6%
ORB% 26.9% 23.6%
FT Rate 23.4% 26.3%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 49.5% 54.6%
Opp TOV% 18.4% 18.1%
DRB% 63.2% 75.5%
Opp FT Rate 24.2% 20.7%

Game Analysis

Loading game analysis…

Failed to load game analysis.