Betting Lines
| Spread | HPU -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Under |
| Money | LONG +110 HPU -110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LONG win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LONG +21 | 129 | Won |
| Massey | LONG -0.9 (+20.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.6 (-3.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 43% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 40% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LONG -0.0 (+21.0) | 133.6 (-4.6) | 50% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LONG -0.2 (+20.8) | 130.7 (-1.7) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LONG -1.0 (+20.0) | 134.7 (-5.7) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LONG -0.6 (+20.4) | 133.5 (-4.5) | 52% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | HPU 71 – 59 LONG |
| Jan 3, 2026 | HPU 80 – 67 LONG |
| Feb 14, 2025 | HPU 83 – 72 LONG |
| Jan 17, 2025 | LONG 82 – 80 HPU |
| Mar 9, 2024 | LONG 80 – 79 HPU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LONG | HPU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-17 | 9-15 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 6-11 |
| Home | 8-5 | 5-5 |
| Away | 4-11 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.3 | 66.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.8 | 69.9 |
| Massey | -5.7 (#260) | -3.8 (#229) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.34 (#322) | -1.55 (#289) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.50 (#306) | -1.55 (#262) |
| RPI | 0.396 (#310) | 0.427 (#276) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LONG | HPU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.5% | 45.3% |
| 3PT% | 31.5% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 32.1 | 33.1 |
| OREB / G | 8.5 | 8.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.72 | 0.96 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.1% | 50.4% |
| TOV% | 20.8% | 19.0% |
| ORB% | 25.5% | 25.2% |
| FT Rate | 21.3% | 26.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.8% | 51.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.1% | 19.1% |
| DRB% | 73.4% | 73.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.1% | 23.4% |
Game Analysis
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