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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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16–11 on winners spread MAE 12.0 27 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Tennessee @ Florida -6.7 137.1 27% 49–75 ✗
Maryland @ Michigan +9.1 143.5 80% 63–87 ✓
South Carolina @ Missouri +9.1 142.3 80% 70–81 ✓
Radford @ Campbell +1.0 127.3 53% 97–91 ✗
USC @ Oregon State -15.7 144.9 8% 56–58 ✗
Butler @ DePaul +4.7 137.5 67% 67–53 ✗
Miami @ Syracuse +9.0 143.6 79% 57–83 ✓
Southeast Missouri State @ Tennessee State +2.5 141.4 59% 63–59 ✗
Winthrop @ Presbyterian -15.5 146.9 8% 72–58 ✓
UNC Asheville @ Gardner-Webb +4.8 149.4 67% 79–75 ✗
Central Michigan @ Toledo +18.6 160.4 95% 72–89 ✓
Ball State @ Miami (OH) -4.0 140.0 36% 71–81 ✗
Akron @ Bowling Green +8.3 155.5 77% 69–57 ✗
Penn State @ Illinois +10.1 158.8 82% 65–79 ✓
Seton Hall @ Villanova +9.0 147.2 79% 74–76 ✓
Alabama @ LSU +3.1 165.0 61% 105–75 ✗
San Diego @ Loyola Marymount +15.0 129.8 91% 69–72 ✓
Duke @ Pittsburgh +5.9 142.1 70% 73–79 ✓
Colorado State @ Utah State +5.7 133.2 70% 64–83 ✓
Ole Miss @ Mississippi State +1.2 134.1 54% 64–46 ✗
Fordham @ Davidson +21.4 116.4 97% 58–73 ✓
East Tennessee State @ Western Carolina -0.5 152.0 48% 59–48 ✓
Winthrop @ Presbyterian -15.5 146.9 8% 78–66 ✓
Mercer @ The Citadel -2.9 181.2 40% 83–63 ✓
VCU @ St. Bonaventure +0.9 133.3 53% 54–70 ✓
Rhode Island @ Duquesne -7.8 132.0 24% 69–71 ✗
High Point @ Longwood +3.4 132.1 62% 54–67 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.