Betting Lines
| Spread | ALA -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 164.5 Over |
| Money | LSU +110 ALA -110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ALA +30 | 180 | Lost |
| Massey | LSU -3.0 (-33.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 163.7 (+16.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 58% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 58% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LSU -3.1 (-33.1) | 160.3 (+19.7) | 65% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LSU -1.0 (-31.0) | 160.0 (+20.0) | 66% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LSU -2.9 (-32.9) | 162.9 (+17.1) | 70% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | LSU -3.4 (-33.4) | 160.3 (+19.7) | 66% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | ALA 90 – 83 LSU |
| Jan 26, 2025 | ALA 80 – 73 LSU |
| Feb 10, 2024 | ALA 109 – 92 LSU |
| Jan 28, 2024 | ALA 109 – 88 LSU |
| Feb 4, 2023 | ALA 79 – 69 LSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LSU | ALA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-10 | 26-7 |
| Conference | 11-6 | 16-2 |
| Home | 11-2 | 12-1 |
| Away | 4-6 | 7-3 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 7-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.8 | 79.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.2 | 70.1 |
| Massey | 16.2 (#11) | 16.0 (#13) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.52 (#36) | 2.69 (#28) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.44 (#34) | 3.68 (#28) |
| RPI | 0.650 (#9) | 0.644 (#10) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LSU | ALA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.1% | 42.8% |
| 3PT% | 36.7% | 34.1% |
| REB / G | 38.8 | 41.1 |
| OREB / G | 11.3 | 13.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.94 | 1.03 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.2% | 50.7% |
| TOV% | 18.5% | 17.8% |
| ORB% | 34.0% | 32.4% |
| FT Rate | 31.7% | 22.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.1% | 45.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.0% | 21.4% |
| DRB% | 68.5% | 70.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.2% | 21.9% |
Game Analysis
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