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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
17–8 on winners
spread MAE 10.3
25 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Providence
@
Creighton
|
+11.3 | 154.8 | 85% | 74–70 | ✗ |
Clemson
@
Georgia Tech
|
-1.2 | 135.9 | 46% | 65–83 | ✗ |
Radford
@
Campbell
|
+0.2 | 136.3 | 51% | 67–61 | ✗ |
Loyola Chicago
@
Valparaiso
|
-13.5 | 130.8 | 11% | 75–39 | ✓ |
Wake Forest
@
North Carolina
|
+8.4 | 136.2 | 78% | 73–80 | ✓ |
Saint Joseph's
@
George Mason
|
+5.7 | 152.3 | 70% | 85–87 | ✓ |
Kentucky
@
Georgia
|
+1.3 | 147.6 | 55% | 62–63 | ✓ |
UNC Asheville
@
Gardner-Webb
|
+3.6 | 150.7 | 63% | 57–84 | ✓ |
Furman
@
VMI
|
-10.0 | 165.1 | 18% | 73–74 | ✗ |
SE Louisiana
@
McNeese
|
-3.4 | 147.8 | 38% | 92–88 | ✓ |
Northwestern State
@
Stephen F. Austin
|
+13.7 | 151.0 | 89% | 74–86 | ✓ |
Tulsa
@
Houston
|
+14.2 | 118.9 | 90% | 59–86 | ✓ |
Northwestern
@
Wisconsin
|
+9.9 | 137.8 | 82% | 52–68 | ✓ |
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi
@
LSU New Orleans
|
+4.6 | 139.4 | 66% | 68–87 | ✓ |
Nicholls
@
Houston Christian
|
-7.0 | 153.9 | 26% | 92–83 | ✓ |
Chattanooga
@
Samford
|
-0.7 | 152.5 | 47% | 70–64 | ✓ |
Bradley
@
Illinois State
|
-9.7 | 139.6 | 19% | 56–71 | ✗ |
Colorado
@
Washington
|
-18.0 | 141.2 | 5% | 80–84 | ✗ |
Fresno State
@
Boise State
|
+20.5 | 137.3 | 97% | 51–73 | ✓ |
Auburn
@
Arkansas
|
+10.4 | 157.0 | 83% | 73–75 | ✓ |
Abilene Christian
@
Sam Houston
|
-6.0 | 134.6 | 29% | 57–64 | ✗ |
Eastern Michigan
@
Buffalo
|
+21.5 | 154.7 | 97% | 77–92 | ✓ |
San José State
@
New Mexico
|
+6.8 | 143.9 | 73% | 51–67 | ✓ |
Bowling Green
@
Miami (OH)
|
-5.8 | 143.7 | 30% | 77–96 | ✗ |
Central Michigan
@
Akron
|
+13.1 | 154.3 | 88% | 67–81 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.