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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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21–13 on winners spread MAE 10.2 34 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
Rutgers @ Penn State	+4.4	149.5	66%	67–75	✓
Wichita State @ Memphis	-2.3	143.6	42%	52–72	✗
Mount St. Mary's @ Central Connecticut	-3.3	127.3	38%	67–57	✓
Fairleigh Dickinson @ Merrimack	+2.9	158.0	60%	51–62	✓
Saint Francis @ Sacred Heart	-0.1	143.9	50%	76–58	✓
Southeast Missouri State @ Morehead State	+7.3	129.4	75%	65–76	✓
UT Martin @ Eastern Kentucky	+21.6	159.8	98%	73–113	✓
Eastern Illinois @ Belmont	+14.5	158.5	91%	66–79	✓
Saint Mary's @ Loyola Marymount	+0.3	120.7	51%	65–61	✗
Montana State @ Northern Arizona	-7.4	145.1	25%	62–51	✓
Montana @ Sacramento State	+2.3	114.6	58%	78–66	✗
Jacksonville State @ Murray State	+1.5	129.3	56%	85–82	✗
Tennessee Tech @ Austin Peay	+9.1	145.9	79%	69–72	✓
Eastern Washington @ Northern Colorado	-4.9	138.2	33%	76–78	✗
Indiana @ Iowa	+13.6	159.7	89%	81–69	✗
UCLA @ California	-8.8	141.8	21%	61–57	✓
Arizona @ Arizona State	-8.3	160.8	23%	84–82	✓
Portland @ BYU	+25.1	148.4	99%	67–95	✓
SIU Edwardsville @ Tennessee State	-0.6	136.9	48%	67–65	✓
Pacific @ Pepperdine	-4.7	143.1	33%	68–85	✗
Southern Utah @ Weber State	+9.4	166.6	80%	67–91	✓
Utah @ Washington State	-0.5	129.0	48%	71–56	✓
San Francisco @ Santa Clara	-3.5	132.6	37%	73–50	✓
Idaho State @ Portland State	+2.1	131.8	57%	64–57	✗
Colorado State @ Utah State	+7.8	136.5	76%	84–76	✗
Wright State @ IU Indianapolis	-12.6	138.6	13%	95–65	✓
Niagara @ Quinnipiac	-0.1	126.3	50%	59–56	✓
Saint Francis @ Sacred Heart	-0.1	143.9	50%	70–82	✗
Fairleigh Dickinson @ Merrimack	+2.9	158.0	60%	71–76	✓
Mount St. Mary's @ Central Connecticut	-3.3	127.3	38%	64–65	✗
Purdue Fort Wayne @ Green Bay	-3.8	162.3	37%	59–77	✗
UIC @ Youngstown State	-2.7	143.7	40%	67–66	✓
Georgia State @ App State	-8.6	152.3	22%	71–80	✗
Troy @ Coastal Carolina	+16.4	129.4	93%	81–90	✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.