Betting Lines
| Spread | HPU -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Under |
| Money | LONG +110 HPU -110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LONG win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LONG +13 | 121 | Won |
| Massey | LONG -3.8 (+9.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.9 (-10.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 55% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LONG -1.7 (+11.3) | 131.6 (-10.6) | 60% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LONG -1.7 (+11.3) | 129.2 (-8.2) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LONG -2.1 (+10.9) | 132.0 (-11.0) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LONG -2.2 (+10.8) | 132.7 (-11.7) | 61% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | HPU 71 – 59 LONG |
| Jan 3, 2026 | HPU 80 – 67 LONG |
| Feb 14, 2025 | HPU 83 – 72 LONG |
| Jan 17, 2025 | LONG 82 – 80 HPU |
| Mar 9, 2024 | LONG 80 – 79 HPU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LONG | HPU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-17 | 9-15 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 6-11 |
| Home | 8-5 | 5-5 |
| Away | 4-11 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.3 | 66.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.8 | 69.9 |
| Massey | -4.6 (#245) | -5.6 (#259) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.18 (#317) | -1.88 (#304) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.26 (#293) | -2.00 (#281) |
| RPI | 0.393 (#312) | 0.404 (#302) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LONG | HPU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.8% | 44.7% |
| 3PT% | 32.2% | 32.7% |
| REB / G | 31.9 | 32.8 |
| OREB / G | 8.2 | 8.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.75 | 0.93 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.9% | 49.8% |
| TOV% | 20.6% | 19.3% |
| ORB% | 25.1% | 25.2% |
| FT Rate | 21.6% | 27.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.3% | 52.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.3% | 19.0% |
| DRB% | 73.5% | 73.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.5% | 23.6% |
Game Analysis
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