Betting Lines
| Spread | ILL -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Under |
| Money | ILL -500 PSU +450 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ILL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ILL +14 | 144 | Won |
| Massey | ILL -10.9 (+3.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 159.2 (-15.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ILL -10.9 (+3.1) | 157.0 (-13.0) | 84% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ILL -8.6 (+5.4) | 150.0 (-6.0) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ILL -11.3 (+2.7) | 152.9 (-8.9) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ILL -11.3 (+2.7) | 154.6 (-10.6) | 83% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 4, 2026 | ILL 73 – 65 PSU |
| Jan 9, 2025 | ILL 91 – 52 PSU |
| Feb 21, 2024 | PSU 90 – 89 ILL |
| Mar 9, 2023 | PSU 79 – 76 ILL |
| Feb 15, 2023 | PSU 93 – 81 ILL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ILL | PSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-7 | 11-14 |
| Conference | 16-4 | 7-12 |
| Home | 11-2 | 7-5 |
| Away | 9-3 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.5 | 72.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.6 | 73.0 |
| Massey | 19.0 (#5) | 10.8 (#45) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.53 (#34) | 1.38 (#78) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.25 (#18) | 2.67 (#51) |
| RPI | 0.588 (#55) | 0.570 (#73) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ILL | PSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 51.3% | 42.8% |
| 3PT% | 40.5% | 35.5% |
| REB / G | 40.9 | 36.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 13.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.30 | 1.26 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.7% | 50.3% |
| TOV% | 18.5% | 15.3% |
| ORB% | 33.9% | 33.4% |
| FT Rate | 25.0% | 14.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.9% | 52.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.8% | 20.3% |
| DRB% | 79.0% | 69.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.1% | 31.3% |
Game Analysis
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