Betting Lines
| Spread | DUKE -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | PITT +200 DUKE -188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PITT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PITT +6 | 152 | Won |
| Massey | PITT -6.5 (-0.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.6 (+10.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PITT -6.3 (-0.3) | 141.4 (+10.6) | 75% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PITT -3.8 (+2.2) | 140.0 (+12.0) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PITT -5.3 (+0.7) | 141.6 (+10.4) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PITT -5.7 (+0.3) | 141.8 (+10.2) | 74% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 11, 2026 | DUKE 70 – 54 PITT |
| Jan 8, 2025 | DUKE 76 – 47 PITT |
| Jan 21, 2024 | PITT 80 – 76 DUKE |
| Jan 10, 2024 | DUKE 75 – 53 PITT |
| Mar 9, 2023 | DUKE 96 – 69 PITT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PITT | DUKE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-12 | 13-11 |
| Conference | 6-10 | 9-9 |
| Home | 7-6 | 8-5 |
| Away | 3-5 | 3-6 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.2 | 73.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.1 | 68.5 |
| Massey | 9.2 (#58) | 5.4 (#97) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.02 (#49) | 0.95 (#108) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.09 (#71) | 1.75 (#85) |
| RPI | 0.550 (#87) | 0.500 (#162) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PITT | DUKE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.0% | 45.5% |
| 3PT% | 30.8% | 34.0% |
| REB / G | 43.2 | 37.2 |
| OREB / G | 14.4 | 12.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.13 | 1.06 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.5% | 52.0% |
| TOV% | 19.2% | 19.6% |
| ORB% | 36.9% | 33.9% |
| FT Rate | 23.4% | 16.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.3% | 52.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.3% | 20.7% |
| DRB% | 73.6% | 75.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.3% | 23.0% |
Game Analysis
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