Betting Lines
| Spread | TNST -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Under |
| Money | TNST -150 SEMO +163 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TNST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SEMO +4 | 122 | Lost |
| Massey | TNST -1.8 (-5.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.5 (-19.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 44% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 37% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TNST -0.8 (-4.8) | 138.4 (-16.4) | 55% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TNST -0.6 (-4.6) | 135.9 (-13.9) | 53% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TNST -0.5 (-4.5) | 138.9 (-16.9) | 49% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TNST -0.9 (-4.9) | 137.1 (-15.1) | 52% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 27, 2026 | TNST 79 – 71 SEMO |
| Dec 20, 2025 | SEMO 91 – 82 TNST |
| Feb 1, 2025 | SEMO 89 – 87 TNST |
| Jan 3, 2025 | SEMO 67 – 65 TNST |
| Feb 10, 2024 | TNST 77 – 74 SEMO |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TNST | SEMO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 4-19 | 11-16 |
| Conference | 3-17 | 9-11 |
| Home | 4-8 | 7-6 |
| Away | 0-10 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.4 | 69.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.3 | 71.7 |
| Massey | -9.0 (#303) | -8.0 (#291) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.90 (#330) | -2.15 (#315) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.61 (#325) | -2.50 (#306) |
| RPI | 0.339 (#341) | 0.361 (#328) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TNST | SEMO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.5% | 42.8% |
| 3PT% | 28.2% | 35.8% |
| REB / G | 33.4 | 35.9 |
| OREB / G | 8.6 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.73 | 0.84 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.5% | 49.7% |
| TOV% | 21.5% | 22.0% |
| ORB% | 23.3% | 27.2% |
| FT Rate | 22.1% | 27.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.9% | 52.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.4% | 18.5% |
| DRB% | 71.1% | 80.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 35.7% | 32.3% |
Game Analysis
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