Betting Lines
| Spread | TOL -13.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 157.5 Over |
| Money | TOL -1200 CMU +900 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TOL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TOL +17 | 161 | Won |
| Massey | TOL -18.0 (-1.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 160.3 (+0.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TOL -16.2 (+0.8) | 159.8 (+1.2) | 90% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TOL -15.2 (+1.8) | 160.9 (+0.1) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TOL -18.6 (-1.6) | 160.4 (+0.6) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TOL -18.0 (-1.0) | 159.4 (+1.6) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 3, 2026 | TOL 78 – 75 CMU |
| Jan 11, 2025 | TOL 69 – 67 CMU |
| Jan 20, 2024 | CMU 65 – 62 TOL |
| Mar 1, 2023 | TOL 99 – 65 CMU |
| Feb 5, 2023 | TOL 84 – 59 CMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TOL | CMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-9 | 7-16 |
| Conference | 15-4 | 3-13 |
| Home | 12-1 | 5-6 |
| Away | 7-5 | 2-9 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.1 | 73.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.6 | 81.9 |
| Massey | 8.6 (#61) | -6.6 (#272) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.36 (#80) | -1.34 (#278) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.25 (#62) | -1.67 (#271) |
| RPI | 0.565 (#76) | 0.400 (#306) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TOL | CMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.1% | 44.1% |
| 3PT% | 39.9% | 35.3% |
| REB / G | 37.7 | 36.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.9 | 11.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.48 | 0.81 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.1% | 49.0% |
| TOV% | 16.3% | 17.9% |
| ORB% | 32.5% | 29.3% |
| FT Rate | 22.7% | 25.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.0% | 52.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.7% | 19.4% |
| DRB% | 70.2% | 66.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.8% | 21.6% |
Game Analysis
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